US OIL into 2021 - Early Feb update

3 февр. 2021 г.

Hello traders and analysts,

Purple = weekly
Blue = Monthly
Orange = Daily
grey = 4hour
pink = 1 hour

Here is an update to our original view back in December 2020 - for the start of 2021.

Based on what merit?
We have seen a nice impulse into the channel and a rejection upon reaching the trendline at $53.00
Good question, based on the fact - from a technical standpoint - the sell off back in February, March 2020 - reversed on a fractal point within the market structure to the crisis of Oil supply being heavy weighted in comparison to the demand . The spike to zero was the abundance of supply which effectively the storage supply became over saturated and "worthless", the May contracts were not accepted for physical delivery and the paying for the delivery took place to prevent further storage.

This imbalance was created in which created the impulse. Price re-established itself with $30-36 zone for a further imbalance where price will now look to as a strong demand for price engineering if needed.

Looking for an entry long term in 2021?
Based on the orange trendline - we would be looking to buy further at $48.00 where price may look to establish a lower high.
If* this zone is broken, the correction will deepen with $46-48 looking to be a buying area.

or;
$52.00 if a pullback breaks our blue trendline on a daily channel.

Due to global recovery optimism, the demand is still very much in control with restricted access and output cuts still in play, the OPEC + JMMC [Joint ministerial Monitoring Committee] both have not made any recommendations in the January meeting.
Commodities here will still be in the balance upon economies re-igniting.

Here is the updated:

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