USOIL analysis

14 июн. 2019 г.

Summary:
-3% increase in oil after two tankers attacked
-The outlook for further disruptions in the region is increasing
-Potential double bottom is noticeable on oil at 59.50

There has been a sharp rise in oil prices after reporting that two tankers have been attacked in the Gulf of Oman, which may have additional geopolitical consequences.

Increasing tensions jeopardize care

In the last 8 to 9 months, there have been large movements in the crude oil markets, a significant decline in the last quarter of 2018, followed by the impressive boom in the year, and a recent decline in brent crude oil fell by 13 USD (nearly 20%) in the past month. The last two swing peaks in October 2018 and this year's US sanctions against Iran caused supply fears, which were exaggerated, but recent developments have repeatedly raised the possibility of a significant reduction in production.

Oil dropped by 20% last month after the stunning rally at the beginning of the year cooled down.

 
Hormuz Strait is the waterway crossing

The morning events this month may lead to geopolitical tensions, and further damage to US-Iran relations may be caused by 4 tankers attacked on the shores of the UAE from the past month. This region is particularly important for crude oil, as the Hormuz Strait is one of the most important "nodes" in the case of waterborne transport; any further events can significantly increase the movement of the oil charter. To hear the story of Trump searching for war with Iran to help re-election in 2020, the opportunity is still to play this card, given its extraordinary nature and populist politics, it can become a reality.

 
US stocks show off seasonal growth

Even though it does not have a dramatic effect on the supply side of the equation, the situation in the Middle East seems to be worth examining the US stocks that have shown profits. The fourth growth on Wednesday, the EIA + 2.2M in the last 5 weeks, but the overall result of the report is mixed, honestly a dive in production and these flies for production and the supply of petroleum distillates can bring some fundamental support to the market.
US Oil Stocks currently exceed the 5-year average and show unusual delays when typically lower than in previous years.
 
Double bottom at 59.50?

Yesterday's inventory data caused a further price drop in oil prices, with the market falling by more than 3% to 59.50 last week's low. However, this level worked well as a support, and the morning news has brought a strong turn and raised the possibility of a double under formation. As long as this level persists, there is a chance of resurrection, the price of Ichimoku clouding on H1 (at the time of writing). The breakthrough described above can be seen as a signal that can predict a change in the short term with a swing level of resistance at around 63.85.

Potential double bottoms may develop on oil at 59.50. The price is now trying to break through the H1 cloud and see the breakthrough as a shortcut trend change indicator. ( Look at H1 chart)