Crude oil message surface analysis: In the US market on Friday (September 1), US crude oil continued to rise, trading near $85.17 / barrel, so the former API data showed that the US crude oil inventory fell by nearly 11.5 million barrels last week, much higher than market expectations, in addition, the overnight data showed that the US job market slowed down, the market on the Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations cooling. An increase in the likelihood of a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy and an overnight rally in U.S. stocks also gave confidence to oil bulls. The latest Chinese manufacturing PMI data for August came in slightly better than expected, cooling demand concerns, and with this week's US data dampening expectations of further Fed rate hikes, the average price consensus may look quite conservative given falling crude inventories. After all, global oil markets remain tight, with global inventories estimated to have fallen by 2.8 million barrels per day in August and expected to fall by a further 2.4 million barrels per day next month. Experts predict that inventory tightening will remain the main price driver in the coming months, but they warn that the market could still slip back into the kind of macro-driven anxiety seen in the second quarter. A group of analysts predicted that Saudi Arabia could extend its voluntary production cuts of 1 million barrels of oil for a third consecutive month until October amid supply uncertainty. There are still opportunities for oil prices to rise further in the short term.
Crude oil technical analysis: crude oil rose strongly on Friday to close high in line with expectations, the daily close full dayang line, after the consolidation of the beginning of the week, the volume rose to recover some lost ground, the daily line returned to the rally, after further continuation last week, the weekly line will also close higher. The 4-hour chart had previously formed a bottom rebound at 77.80, and in the middle of the week, relying on the medium track to form a unilateral long trend, last week, the top opened up the track to open space, and the current medium track is the critical point, but the strong market. The space for backstepping is limited, and the trend can continue to look more within the day, combined with the pullback of the high and low points, the support point moved up to 82.80-82.30. Hour chart retracement low of 82.10 late last night as a short-term defensive point. On the whole, crude oil Monday's opening operation on the idea of Hoboson suggested to back down to the main low, rebound high as a supplement, above short-term attention 87.5-88.0 line resistance, below short-term attention 85.0-84.5 line support.