Mixed view on the oil market
Обновлено
In our previous article, we said that we would like to abstain from setting any price outlook for USOIL after it stopped 0.10$ above our 70$ price target. Unfortunately, that continues to be the case also today, and we do not wish to set any new price targets. However, we would like to update at least some thoughts on the asset.
On 8th December 2022, we floated the idea of the price deviating too far from its moving averages. Interestingly, the next day the price halted its decline and started going up. Since then, the price has broken above 20-day SMA. As a result, USOIL currently trades near the 78.90$ price tag. At the moment, we will pay close attention to the price action. If the price breaks above 80$ and holds there, it will bolster the bullish case for USOIL in the short term. In such a scenario, it could be possible that USOIL will attempt to fully retrace toward its 50-day SMA. That would mark a significant downtrend correction and perhaps even foreshadow a bigger move up.
However, our current thoughts about the oil market are mixed. There are several factors responsible for that. First, economic activity is slowing down rapidly, weighing on oil demand in the coming months. Second, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that the Earth experienced the coolest November since 2014, which can contrarily boost demand over the winter. Third, the U.S. might consider slowing down or halting releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) as their levels are reaching 1983 lows.
In addition to that, there are rumors of Germany and Poland demanding oil from the Russian company Transneft, which opens a debate about whether some of the Russian crude oil can be allowed back into the European market. With that said, we would like to wait longer on the sidelines until we see a clearer picture of the market.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price holds above the short-term support, it will be bullish in the short term.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
On 8th December 2022, we floated the idea of the price deviating too far from its moving averages. Interestingly, the next day the price halted its decline and started going up. Since then, the price has broken above 20-day SMA. As a result, USOIL currently trades near the 78.90$ price tag. At the moment, we will pay close attention to the price action. If the price breaks above 80$ and holds there, it will bolster the bullish case for USOIL in the short term. In such a scenario, it could be possible that USOIL will attempt to fully retrace toward its 50-day SMA. That would mark a significant downtrend correction and perhaps even foreshadow a bigger move up.
However, our current thoughts about the oil market are mixed. There are several factors responsible for that. First, economic activity is slowing down rapidly, weighing on oil demand in the coming months. Second, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that the Earth experienced the coolest November since 2014, which can contrarily boost demand over the winter. Third, the U.S. might consider slowing down or halting releases of Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) as their levels are reaching 1983 lows.
In addition to that, there are rumors of Germany and Poland demanding oil from the Russian company Transneft, which opens a debate about whether some of the Russian crude oil can be allowed back into the European market. With that said, we would like to wait longer on the sidelines until we see a clearer picture of the market.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. If the price holds above the short-term support, it will be bullish in the short term.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Заметка
As for the breakout below the 20-day SMA, it will be bearish.
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