USOIL rises to highest since 2014, What's next !

6 окт. 2021 г.

Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)

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Oil prices rose for a fifth day on Wednesday to their highest since 2014 amid global concerns about energy supply on signs of tightness in crude, natural gas, and coal markets.
WTI earlier rose to $79.47 a barrel this started from $73.62 5 days ago, almost an 8% increase in value.

Possible Scenarios for the market :

Scenario 1 :

The market is trading at 78.91 at the time of this post, Bears has been quiet for the last 5 days which leads us to believe that any time soon they will be ready to step in and drop the price, most likely they will have 2 goals for the next period of time. The first one will be the support line at 77.95 and the main goal for the week will be the 73.86 support zone.

Scenario 2 :

The bulls are trying to keep this upper momentum as much as they can but today's candle is red at the time of the post, Which shows the ongoing battle between the Bulls and Bears.
The Bulls will try to push the price above the first resistance located at the $80.00 level so they can set up a support base and from there they will try to push the market more in hope of reaching the $82.00 by the end of the week

Technical indicators show :

1) The market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign)
2) The MACD is above the 0 line indicating that the market is in a Bullish state, With a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line.
3) The ADX is at 22.20 showing that the market is trending with a positive crossover between the DI+ and DI-

Daily Support & Resistance points :
support Resistance
1) 77.95 1) 79.95
2) 76.78 2) 80.78
3) 75.95 3) 81.95

Fundamental point of view :

OPEC+ agreed to adhere to its July pact to boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month until at least April 2022, phasing out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts.
Late last month, the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee (JTC) said it expected a 1.1 million bpd supply deficit this year, which could turn into a 1.4 million bpd surplus next year.

Oil prices have surged more than 50% this year, adding to inflationary pressures that crude-consuming nations such as the United States and India are concerned will derail recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
Despite pressure to ramp up output, OPEC+ was concerned that a fourth global wave of COVID-19 infections could hit the demand recovery, a source told Reuters a little before Monday's talks.

However, inventory data from the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, showed some signs of slowing fuel demand.
The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. oil inventories rose by 951,000 barrels in the week to Oct 1. According to Reuters

This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!