Back below the trend line?

30 апр. 2020 г.

Caveat: here's a very a speculative prediction with very little data to back it up.

After the break oil failed to push above the level that set the very bottom of the bullish bat—ie, the level after which it previously edged up before falling off a cliff.

We could be headed back toward the longterm trend line tomorrow or next week. Conversely, I'd consider a strong push above the current level to be very bullish, possibly to $30., A reversal and subsequent bounce off the trend would also be bullish but less so. And I still believe we will see another elevator down as we near settlement date of the June contract.

1 мая 2020 г.

Заметка

I added a trend lines. Upper represents the bottom of the candle bodies/support out of the bat, lower is the lowest pre-crash low. Seeing some long wicks above the top, but it's defending the bottom well. Perhaps we've entered calmer waters? Resurgent protectionist rhetoric offsetting stocks' reaction to the critical mass of bad news?

It's also interesting to see that SCO, the Proshares 2x inverse Oil ETF rise today with oil. This may be an indication of investor sentiment diverging from the real commodity market.