USOIL: Daily analysis - Key levels and uptrend 'slope'

8 окт. 2016 г.

Traders, we have a bullish setup in oil, as you all know and judging by RgMov, it's unlikely for it to give dips to join the uptrend, or least, not when everyone's begging for one as they unwind shorts in loss.
Pay attention to the two red dashed lines on chart. These two are speed lines, and determine the 'slope' one can expect from the uptrend, which if breached, presages a steeper pullback or a sideways correction, causing a slower progress in the trend.

Simply put, if price approaches the diagonal line nearby, it has to rebound instantly. If this 'faster' trend holds, we can expect a brutal rally, if not, price will form a consolidation which can take many shapes, either a sideways pattern for a few days, or longer, or a steeper pullback to support.
If the correction takes the form of a sideways pattern, we'll go long again on the breakout from the mode, using 'Time at mode'. If we get a pullback, we'll go long when we hit a good support level, or if we get other confirmation signals from our tools. The idea is to be prepared to follow this trend, and trade around the main long term position as much as possible, speculating on shorter term longs when suitable.

Good luck,

Ivan Labrie.

8 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

The news this week can give us a 'hunch' of timing and potential max downside we could see, with oil hitting 48, worst case scenario, with the faster uptrend slope holding until the EIA report on Wednesday. Best case scenario, price progresses higher straight up, or it goes sideways and hits the speed line by the 27th, where it breaks out. This would form a 'Time at mode' signal in the daily chart. It's just a guess, simply react to these events as they unfold.

10 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

I added to my long on the break of Friday's low.

10 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

Buying the new low was perfect.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-10/russians-and-saudis-pledge-joint-effort-to-limit-oil-production

10 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

Holding this position for the long term.
Additionally I'm taking swing trades without closing it.

EIA data on Wednesday will probably instigate a massive surge.

12 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/4/4eOakoMy.png

13 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

13 окт. 2016 г.

Сделка закрыта вручную

Closed longs and flipped short. I'll see if we get a meaningful correction, or the trend simply turns down. (I think it's a pullback)

13 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

Well, as soon as I entered on the breakdown I got out shortly after.
Seems like it's going sideways from here. Let's watch it to either short, or reenter longs.

18 окт. 2016 г.

Сделка активна

I'm long again, stop is under yesterday's close.

18 окт. 2016 г.

Сделка активна

We approached the speed line, broke above the mode, we have 4h confirmation, daily will soon fire an uptrend signal so I'm back in the long here. Stop is 40 pips down.

19 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

Blast off! Stop now at entry price of 51.71.

24 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

There's a chance that oil breaks down to the following target.
If we get more confirmation we could go short towards it, and lower prices but it's not ideal.
I'd rather go long at the bottom when safe again.



If you want you can risk half, max 1%, and short with a stop above the previous day's high.

25 окт. 2016 г.

Заметка

We have a breakdown today, after API data came out. The short trade is tricky, with very volatile intraday conditions, I'm flat currently.

I'll be watching it closely.

18 нояб. 2016 г.

Заметка

I'm long as per my recent posts.