Copper and Oil: A Rare Divergence in the Commodity Complex

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The chart compares Copper (brown) and USOIL (blue) — two of the most cyclical commodities, both highly sensitive to global growth.

Historically, they tend to move in tandem: when economic momentum improves, both rise; when demand weakens, both fall.
But today we see an unusual divergence —

-Copper holding near multi-year highs, supported by structural deficits and energy transition demand.

-Oil trading below $60, its lowest since 2021, signaling cyclical slowdown and weak liquidity.

This gap rarely lasts long. Either copper is too optimistic, or oil is too pessimistic — one of them is likely “lying.”

Which one will be right this time?

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