Market Crash - VX Falling Wedge

11 июн.

VX is near all time lows and normally I would say that means shorts should be avoided. That's normally how it goes, but it obviously does rally at times, it's just very weak since early 2023. It is usually against me rules to place any trades if VX does not confirm my bias.

This has been the most tricky part for me when it comes to my market crash prediction. We should be seeing some signs of new strength for VX if a crash is actually coming. Instead, VX continues to immediately roll over shortly after every pop and seems to always end up back at all time lows in short order.

While all the recent action is looking bearish for VX in my view, we still have this major falling wedge pattern, and if it ends up being valid and causing a breakout, the move should be substantial and last a while. There's a big difference between a simple correction and a crash like I'm talking about now.

Believe it or not, I shorted the top in 2022. I expected a correction, I did not have doomsday thoughts and fears. This time I do. I'm serious about this and it's why I'm sharing. My point there is that VX will spike at some point and there will be a pullback, even if it takes years. When that breakout occurs, it still has key areas to break above in order to cause a full blown crash. The first level I want to see it take out is $21.65, then the 2023 high around $30. If it stops there, not much a crash will be had, but that would obviously cause significant downside, but no global financial collapse like I'm predicting. I need to see it take out $30 and return to the 2022 highs, at that point it would be a lot more reasonable to say there's a crash underway.