VXMT - Mid Term VX - M3/M5/M7, Backwardation Prior @ 22.40

24 авг. 2021 г.

The pattern, which for going on 7 Months has been the same.

We see Price Action in the VIX Complex within a tight timeframe
surround ST Constant 30 Day Maturities (M1/M2) - during Roll
Week (prior 2nd Wednesday of Front Month M1) into Settlement,
the 3rd week.

Every Month this skews the VXX on the ST Curve as it front Loads
100% of exposure to Roll Yield.

77% of the time during this transition to Balance, the VX Curve is
in Contango.

We witnessed the Prior settlement trade in Backwardation by the
largest spread we have seen during the Fed Induced Rally.

M2 was Price @ 22.40 during this settlement. The FED's minions
quickly squared this to avoid a mini-panic for protection which
had built up during the prior 7 trading days.

Immense effort was applied to calm the VX Curves M1-M3 CTs.

Roll Yield skewed to a level unseen since FEB of 2020, the MId Term
Vol sold along with the balance of the short dated CTs - M1 & M2.

The VX Curves suppression is coming to an end.

This was the first sign in 17 months - uncertainty surrounding the
Federal Reserve was gaining traction.

It continues to become a far larger issue at present, as by the FED's
admission they have overcooked things... the nagging Inflation rate
remains well above their target of 2%.

CPI & PPI as well as exogenous "Things We need" are in an obvious
Price Uptrend - Gas, Food, Energy... etal.

Consumers are conserving, seeing higher prices while hearing they
will be heading lower... has created a retrenchment in both spending
and trust in both Government's Fiscal as well as the Federal Reserve's
Monetary Policy.

Confidence in both is quietly deteriorating while Wall Street exclaims
the Echo works.

It does not.

Kicking the Can down the road a few months, is not widely held as
a solution by the Public, they are well aware there is a storm dead
ahead.

They "sense" the stimulus support of wages, rents and many other
benefits are coming to a decided end.

Housing will be in crisis while the Supreme Court vacations...

Debt has ballooned to absurd levels since March of 2020 while
the First Abusers benefitted enormously, the American Citizenry
wants more of the same.

It isn't coming any time soon.

The dismay and unrest this has begun is appearing across our
Nation.

.... best to prepare for some rough times ahead.

- HK