Wartsila share are at the lowest price for several years

18 июл. 2019 г.

Wärtsilä, also spelled Wartsila and Waertsilae is a company based in Finland. The company's main business is fitting out the entire engine rooms of large ships.

Their website describes the activity as follows: Wärtsilä is a global leader in smart technologies and complete lifecycle solutions for the marine and energy markets. By emphasizing sustainable innovation, total efficiency and data analytics, Wärtsilä maximises the environmental and economic performance of the vessels and power plants of its customers. In 2018, Wärtsilä’s net sales totalled EUR 5.2 billion with approximately 19,000 employees. The company has operations in over 200 locations in more than 80 countries around the world. Wärtsilä is listed on Nasdaq Helsinki.

Today, 18/7/2019, the company announced their half year results. The results were worse than expected. Orders missed by 5% on both divisions. EBIT missed by 16%.

The outlook was far from bright. They wrote: "The demand for Wärtsilä’s services and solutions in the coming 12 months is expected to be somewhat below that of the previous 12 months (previously in-line)." Analysts are estimating about 5% worse. The shares are down around 11% this morning to EUR 11.15.

We can expect a series of analyst downgrades in the coming weeks. This means the share price could well head lower. Prior to the results the shares had already been under pressure, trending lower since March 2019. In fact the share have been a broad based down trend since September 2017, when they traded at a peak of EUR 20.25 now they are EUR 11.15. Prior to today's results the shares had been under pressure after another Finnish company (Fiskars Corporation), decided to distribute its 5% stake in Wartsila as a dividend to its investors. The share were distributed in June 2019. It seems that those investors sold the Wartsila shares, depressing the share price.

Whilst it will take quite some time for investors to change their view, and there is little prospect of a share price rise, there are some investors who think new shareholders are getting quite a bargain.
1) dividend yield 4.4%
2) P/e ratio 15X (forecast for 2018)
3) Prospects for refitting engines due to modern pollution controls.
4) The company's leading position in a cyclical market could mean a strong price recovery when the economy improves.

The company's recent dividend isn't too bad, being more than 4% of the share price. The company paid a dividend of EUR 0.48 for 2018.

Is the dividend sustainable? Wärtsilä's says its target is to pay a dividend of at least 50% of operational earnings over the cycle. In the first half of 2019 the company had earnings per share of EUR 0.22 vs EUR 0.21 in the previous year. Usually the company earns more in the second half than the first half. With an EPS estimate for the full year of EUR 0.60 to EUR 0.80, it looks like the dividend for 2019 might be under threat.

At the end of the day, it looks like the shares are going to stay in the doldrums for quite some time until there are concrete signs of recovery. Looking at the chart, I reckon the downtrend can continue for a while. I would stay away.