WTIOIL / USOIL Short

15 янв. 2020 г.

lets not forget we are in a massive bear market on oil since the top in 2008. the wedge which is a bear flag starting in 2014 is now complete in terms of satisfying touches and we are coming into the apex of it. drawing a fib from the low in 2016 to the high in late 2018 we have many levels to test. we should at least be making a retest of the .5 fib retracement ($51) this will put us exactly at the base of the wedge, then breaking the wedge to 61.8 ($45) we have MACD cross over daily and about to cross the zero line. RSI even with the touch to 65 (just slightly less than April 2019 at 66) we did not print a higher rsi.

We can see the red extension areas at the top of the wedge that we have rejected. most importantly we did not manage to surpass the April 2019 high at $66.

Another point to note is the correlation between stocks and oil. normally stocks price in future expectations which today are bullish (the expectations of no recession are completely misplaced today - see my nasdaq analysis) my expectation is for US stocks to start dropping and normally oil drops or increases prior to the change in US stocks.

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Thankyou

3 февр. 2020 г.

Заметка

First target as been hit at just above 50. possible bounce before breaking through this support area.