XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

27 февр. 2022 г.

KOG Report:

In last week KOG Report we said it would be a difficult week for traders and that even though the technical levels will be achieved the volatility and aggressiveness of the movement is what will catch traders out. We gave a scenario to look out for based on the initial market movement at the beginning of the week from which you can you see the price ranged to bring the mean up and then broke to the upside, we managed to achieve our target levels of 1912, 1917, 1920, 1935 and the higher level of 1935-42. Camelot members also were given a level of 1960 a few weeks ago which was also achieved. We said we would keep that 1940-55 price level in mind and would be looking for a turn around that region to trade this down. It played out pretty well apart from the extension of the move into the 1970s region where we finally got the sell off!

Hopefully the daily analysis together with KOGs review of levels and Daily Bias will have kept you in the right direction and trade this level to level, point to point!

We had mentioned in previous KOG reports that as soon as Gold breaks the 1830-35 level we will change our view and target the higher levels rather than our short targets. We have now achieved all our higher targets on Gold apart from one which is a little higher up, however we would like to see the price action and structure hold before we begin to think about targeting that level.

So what can we expect in the week ahead?

We’re going to start by saying as we’ve suggested in the last few KOG reports that is still a lot of room to the downside for Gold and there is a certain area of supply that needs a visit at some point. We’re going to keep that in the background at the moment as there is a lot of news that is driving the market. We have our entries from above which we’re holding, we’ve taken partials and the stop is moved to entry so we shall again be trading this level to level using the daily review levels as a guide.

We have indications at the moment that the price will face a bit of bearish pressure so we will look to add to our short positions at the resistance levels we have highlighted on the chart. We would ideally like to see these levels achieved during the early sessions and then a potential visit towards the 1860 and below that 1852 price levels. The chart shows there is a H&S in the making, however, as we’ve taught there is a certain way to trade patterns in Gold so we will be looking out for this during the week.

So we’ll suggest two scenarios for the week ahead!

Scenario 1:

The price opens, we find support around the 1885-80 price level where based on strong support we feel this could represent an opportunity to long the market into the higher resistance levels of 1905 and above that 1910-14. This resistance level is where we would ideally like the price to stay below as breaking this level will push the price higher into that extension of 1930-35 which is where we will again test the short into the lower levels of 1885, 1860 and below that 1852. If the price breaks below the 1885-80 level first then it is likely we will go lower during the early sessions before coming back up to test that 1900 level

Scenario 2:

Markets open, we see an aggressive push to the upside targeting that 1910-14 level where if we see strong resistance we will want to test the short trade down into that 1885, 1877, 1860 and below that 1852 level. This lower support level is where we want to again see support and then test the trade back up towards the 1900 challenge. Breaking above that 1910-14 level straight away will result in the price trying to achieve that 1930-35 level so keep that in mind and adjust your lot sizes accordingly.

There’s a long wick on the weekly which will need to filled at some point so lets be careful with our lot sizes and keep our risk strategy in check. Usually with institutional selling they don’t stop in a day, so there is a chance they will attempt to fill that wick and then drop the price again.

Lets play safe this week members and followers. We’ll keep you updated with the daily levels and KOGs bias as we usually do.

As always, trade safe.

KOG