gold analysis during fed chair powell speech

2 июл.

XAUUSD
1. Support and Resistance Zones:
- Support: Around 2318.605 (green zone) and another support zone at 2323.000 to 2325.000.
- Resistance:
- Primary resistance is around 2334.000 (red zone).
- Intermediate resistance levels at the 38.2% Fibonacci level (2330.000).

2. Fibonacci Retracement Levels:
- 0.0%: At 2339.785 (high).
- 38.2%: Approximately at 2330.000.
- 50.0%: Approximately at 2327.000.
- 61.8%: Approximately at 2324.000.
- 100.0%: At 2318.605 (low).

- Descending Trend Line: The white dashed line indicates a bearish trend. The price recently bounced off the 100.0% Fibonacci level and is moving towards the trend line resistance.

- The price has rebounded sharply from the support level around 2318.605, breaking through the 61.8% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels.
- The current price is approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (2330.000), which also coincides with a significant resistance zone.

Bullish Scenario:
1. Break Above Resistance:
- If the price breaks above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (2330.000) and the descending trend line, it could signal a reversal of the recent bearish trend.
- The next target would be the primary resistance zone around 2334.000.

2. Volume and Momentum:
- Increased volume and bullish momentum are necessary to sustain the break above the resistance levels.
Bearish Scenario:
1. Failure at Resistance:
- If the price fails to break above the 38.2% Fibonacci level (2330.000) and the descending trend line, it could indicate a continuation of the bearish trend.
- The price may then retest the support levels around 2324.000 (61.8% Fibonacci level) and 2318.605 (100.0% Fibonacci level).

2. Bearish Reversal Patterns:
- Look for bearish reversal patterns (e.g., bearish engulfing candles) around the resistance levels to confirm a potential move lower.

Trading Strategy:

Long Position (Bullish Scenario):
1. Entry:
- Enter a long position on a confirmed break and close above 2330.000 (38.2% Fibonacci level) and the descending trend line.

2. Stop Loss:
- Place a stop loss below 2327.000 (50.0% Fibonacci level) to manage risk.

3. Take Profit:
- First target: 2334.000 (primary resistance zone).
- Second target: Higher resistance levels if bullish momentum continues.

Short Position (Bearish Scenario):
1. Entry:
- Enter a short position if the price fails to break above 2330.000 and shows signs of rejection at this level.

2. Stop Loss:
- Place a stop loss above 2334.000 to manage risk.

3. Take Profit:
- First target: 2324.000 (61.8% Fibonacci level).
- Second target: 2318.605 (100.0% Fibonacci level).
Summary:
The price is currently testing significant resistance levels. The most likely scenario is a short-term pullback or consolidation unless there is a strong bullish breakout above the 38.2% Fibonacci level and the descending trend line.

Trading Strategy:
- For a bullish breakout, look for entries above 2330.000 with targets towards 2334.000.
- For a bearish continuation, consider short entries on rejection at 2330.000 with targets towards 2324.000 and 2318.605.