BEAR TRAP SCENARIO - ATH TO CLOSE THE YEAR

8 дек.

Here I'm trying to visualize what a bear trap could look like this coming up week.
If you're interested in reading more, I will also leave my fundamentals and a personal view on a few factors that could drive gold into a 2025 where it could see the $3,300-$3,500 price range.

BE CAREFUL and BE PATIENT for a potential SWING BUY, since there is a lot of selling pressure from retail bears that think this is the top for gold. Yes, day traders can profit shorting, im not saying selling is WRONG, but allow me to point out some critical circumstances that put the balance on the BUYING side for the yellow metal.

I have been bullish since FEB just before price broke $2,000 max high, calling a bear trap that took place where price formed a "V" shape in the DAILY timeframe between FEB 12th and FEB 22nd. (go back and study that and many other occasions in which "V" shapes are the footprints of major manipulations.
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It's simply a matter of how the metal behaves and its demand during geopolitical conflict and economic uncertainty.

Key Events that strength gold:


º China continues its purchase of gold during November, after pausing for 6 months. That is a simple demand increase that naturally increase prices.

º Geopolitical conflict + global economic outlooks and overall growth, as it is unknown how the many on-going wars will develop + an apparent rise in trade tariffs by the US which could result in higher global inflation (but not strictly and necessarily); which leads to measures toward tighter monetary policies (such as a "higher for longer" Fed rates), which leads to a rise in gold prices since investors protect their other financial assets by hedging gold; buying it (on top of the global demand).

º Inflation isn't coming down as expected and it certainly won't get any better if the high tariff sanctions on international trade with the US are applied on China (and other countries).
Some companies would have to: A) increase prices and B) decrease production costs; both in order to be able to pay such high fees. That means: find cheaper production (but other companies would have to do the same so in the end it's very hard to "save money" by decreasing costs), and lay people off; fire them; in order to spend less (decreasing their costs by not paying workers) to be able to afford higher production prices, and eventually being able to make money.
So, who ends up paying for those tariffs? WE DO; the consumers. In other words: homes would "get poorer" simply because things will get more expensive to buy; hence, money is worth-less (inflation). And people aren't getting a wage-raise in order to afford those new prices; no. They're actually getting fired. It's a delicate and dangerous spiral that could potentially affect everyone.
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That being said, I will be looking for very short term trading setups to sell, but focusing on a LONG SWING entry with the potential to hold potentially the whole year of 2025...

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GOOD LUCK!