Gold or Nasdaq: What to Short this Week?

31 июл. 2023 г.

Gold or Nasdaq: What to Short this Week?

For Gold (XAU/USD), the 4-hour chart suggests a neutral-to-bearish stance. While the pair is currently above its moving averages, the 50-day moving average is closely trailing its price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dropping towards a neutral level, indicating a potential pause in buyer activity. If Gold drops below $1,945, there is a risk of prices descending further and retesting their previous lows or the 200-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $1,941.

The deciding factor for Gold this week will likely be the US jobs data. The Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday is a significant event, and the precursor jobs data (JOLTS Job report on Tuesday) could also sway traders. The market expects the NFP to show 190K jobs added, more than double the natural US growth rate. A strong jobs figure could influence traders' anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and impact the downside outlook for Gold.

On the other hand, Nasdaq and other major US indices are expected to end July with gains. The Dow Jones has particularly shown impressive growth over the past two weeks. The outperformance of the Dow Jones suggests a possible shift by investors from growth stocks (such as Nasdaq stocks) to value stocks.

Looking at the daily chart, the Nasdaq Composite is now targeting a key resistance level at 14,649. However, there is a possibility of aggressive seller response at that level. On the 4-hour chart, a divergence with the MACD indicates weakening momentum, which is often followed by pullbacks.

Earnings reports from major tech companies, Apple and Amazon, will be crucial for Nasdaq this week. These two giants represent 11.6% of the entire Nasdaq index measured by market cap. Better-than-expected US earnings could potentially prolong the bull run in the market.