7 Reasons Gold will continue to Grow (Updated) June 2021
Обновлено
Hello Traders.
Here is THE XAUUSD UPDATE YOUVE BEEN WAITING FOR!
Here is my Previous Analysis on GOLD -
The economic data, the stock market, and businesses' actual health are completely out of sync. That is because the U.S. stock market is still sitting near its record high while enterprises are consistently forced to close. With the new variant of coronavirus, chances are that lawmakers are likely to keep their guards up entering the first quarter of 2021 and that they can reinstate more lockdowns.
Struggling businesses are more likely to file for more bankruptcies, and there are greater chances that it will create more shocks for the global economy. Such an event could once again help the gold price to move higher.
Something that is surely going to influence the gold price is the trend in the dollar index, which is determined by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. According to the most recent Federal Reserve meeting, it was clear that the Fed is more optimistic about the economic recovery, and this made them upgrade the growth forecast for the U.S. economy.
As Mentioned Before in (23th January 2021) - I still Think the GOLD Price Will Reach All Time Highs in 2021 & 2022
Here Are the Reasons why I Say that -
7 Reasons Gold will continue to Grow
Correlation to Inflation
Certainly, during times of economic crisis, investors flock to gold . When the Great Recession hit, for example, gold prices rose. But gold was already rising until the beginning of 2008, That said, gold prices rose further, even as the economy recovered . Essentially that means, as more people buy gold , the price goes up, in line with demand. It also means there aren't any underlying "fundamentals" to the price of gold . If investors start flocking to gold , the price rises no matter what shape the economy is or what monetary policy might be. That doesn't mean that gold prices are completely random or the result of herd behavior. Some forces affect the supply of gold in the wider market, and gold is a worldwide commodity market, like oil or coffee .
Supply Factors
Unlike oil or coffee , however, gold isn't consumed. Almost all the gold ever mined is still around and more gold is being mined each day. If so, one would expect the price of gold to plummet over time, since there is more and more of it around. So, why doesn't it? Aside from the fact that the number of people who might want to buy it is constantly on the rise, jewelry and investment demand offer some clues. "It ends up in a drawer someplace." The gold in jewelry is effectively taken off the market for years at a time. Even though countries like India and China treat gold as a store of value, the people who buy it there don't regularly trade it (few pay for a washing machine by handing over a gold bracelet). Instead, jewelry demand tends to rise and fall with the price of gold . When prices are high, the demand for jewelry falls relative to investor demand.
Central Banks
Big market movers of gold prices are often central banks. In times when foreign exchange reserves are large, and the economy is humming along, a central bank will want to reduce the amount of gold it holds. That's because the gold is a dead asset—unlike bonds or even money in a deposit account, it generates no return. The problem for central banks is that this is precisely when the other investors out there aren't that interested in gold . Thus, a central bank is always on the wrong side of the trade, even though selling that gold is precisely what the bank is supposed to do. As a result, the price of gold falls. Central banks have tried to manage their gold sales in a cartel-like fashion, to avoid disrupting the market too much. Something called the Washington Agreement essentially states that the banks won't sell more than 400 metric tons in a year. It's not binding, as it's not a treaty; rather, it's more of a gentleman's agreement—but one that is in the interests of central banks, since unloading too much gold on the market at once would negatively affect their portfolios.
ETFs
Besides central banks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs)— which allow investors to buy into gold without buying mining stocks—are now major gold buyers and sellers. Both ETFs trade on the exchanges like stock and measure their holdings in ounces of gold . Still, these ETFs are designed to reflect the price of gold , not move it.
Portfolio Considerations
Speaking of portfolios, A good question for investors is what the rationale for buying gold is. As a hedge against inflation , it doesn't work well. However, seen as one piece of a larger portfolio, gold is a reasonable diversifier. It's simply important to recognize what it can and cannot do. In real terms, gold prices topped out in 1980, when the price of the metal hit nearly $2,000 per ounce (in 2014 dollars). Anyone who bought gold then has been losing money since. On the other hand, the investors who bought it in 1983 or 2005 would be happy selling now. It's also worth noting that the 'rules' of portfolio management apply to gold as well. The total number of gold ounces one holds should fluctuate with the price. If, for example, one wants 2% of the portfolio in gold , then it's necessary to sell when the price goes up and buy when it falls.
Retaining Value
One good thing about gold , is that the purchasing power of gold has stayed quite constant and largely unrelated to its current price.
The Bottom Line
If you're looking at gold prices, it's probably a good idea to look at Investing in GOLD Throughout Year 2021
I hope this was clear and informative for all of you, I wish you a good 2021!
Stay Safe!
Global Fx education
Here is THE XAUUSD UPDATE YOUVE BEEN WAITING FOR!
Here is my Previous Analysis on GOLD -
The economic data, the stock market, and businesses' actual health are completely out of sync. That is because the U.S. stock market is still sitting near its record high while enterprises are consistently forced to close. With the new variant of coronavirus, chances are that lawmakers are likely to keep their guards up entering the first quarter of 2021 and that they can reinstate more lockdowns.
Struggling businesses are more likely to file for more bankruptcies, and there are greater chances that it will create more shocks for the global economy. Such an event could once again help the gold price to move higher.
Something that is surely going to influence the gold price is the trend in the dollar index, which is determined by the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. According to the most recent Federal Reserve meeting, it was clear that the Fed is more optimistic about the economic recovery, and this made them upgrade the growth forecast for the U.S. economy.
As Mentioned Before in (23th January 2021) - I still Think the GOLD Price Will Reach All Time Highs in 2021 & 2022
Here Are the Reasons why I Say that -
7 Reasons Gold will continue to Grow
Correlation to Inflation
Certainly, during times of economic crisis, investors flock to gold . When the Great Recession hit, for example, gold prices rose. But gold was already rising until the beginning of 2008, That said, gold prices rose further, even as the economy recovered . Essentially that means, as more people buy gold , the price goes up, in line with demand. It also means there aren't any underlying "fundamentals" to the price of gold . If investors start flocking to gold , the price rises no matter what shape the economy is or what monetary policy might be. That doesn't mean that gold prices are completely random or the result of herd behavior. Some forces affect the supply of gold in the wider market, and gold is a worldwide commodity market, like oil or coffee .
Supply Factors
Unlike oil or coffee , however, gold isn't consumed. Almost all the gold ever mined is still around and more gold is being mined each day. If so, one would expect the price of gold to plummet over time, since there is more and more of it around. So, why doesn't it? Aside from the fact that the number of people who might want to buy it is constantly on the rise, jewelry and investment demand offer some clues. "It ends up in a drawer someplace." The gold in jewelry is effectively taken off the market for years at a time. Even though countries like India and China treat gold as a store of value, the people who buy it there don't regularly trade it (few pay for a washing machine by handing over a gold bracelet). Instead, jewelry demand tends to rise and fall with the price of gold . When prices are high, the demand for jewelry falls relative to investor demand.
Central Banks
Big market movers of gold prices are often central banks. In times when foreign exchange reserves are large, and the economy is humming along, a central bank will want to reduce the amount of gold it holds. That's because the gold is a dead asset—unlike bonds or even money in a deposit account, it generates no return. The problem for central banks is that this is precisely when the other investors out there aren't that interested in gold . Thus, a central bank is always on the wrong side of the trade, even though selling that gold is precisely what the bank is supposed to do. As a result, the price of gold falls. Central banks have tried to manage their gold sales in a cartel-like fashion, to avoid disrupting the market too much. Something called the Washington Agreement essentially states that the banks won't sell more than 400 metric tons in a year. It's not binding, as it's not a treaty; rather, it's more of a gentleman's agreement—but one that is in the interests of central banks, since unloading too much gold on the market at once would negatively affect their portfolios.
ETFs
Besides central banks, exchange-traded funds (ETFs)— which allow investors to buy into gold without buying mining stocks—are now major gold buyers and sellers. Both ETFs trade on the exchanges like stock and measure their holdings in ounces of gold . Still, these ETFs are designed to reflect the price of gold , not move it.
Portfolio Considerations
Speaking of portfolios, A good question for investors is what the rationale for buying gold is. As a hedge against inflation , it doesn't work well. However, seen as one piece of a larger portfolio, gold is a reasonable diversifier. It's simply important to recognize what it can and cannot do. In real terms, gold prices topped out in 1980, when the price of the metal hit nearly $2,000 per ounce (in 2014 dollars). Anyone who bought gold then has been losing money since. On the other hand, the investors who bought it in 1983 or 2005 would be happy selling now. It's also worth noting that the 'rules' of portfolio management apply to gold as well. The total number of gold ounces one holds should fluctuate with the price. If, for example, one wants 2% of the portfolio in gold , then it's necessary to sell when the price goes up and buy when it falls.
Retaining Value
One good thing about gold , is that the purchasing power of gold has stayed quite constant and largely unrelated to its current price.
The Bottom Line
If you're looking at gold prices, it's probably a good idea to look at Investing in GOLD Throughout Year 2021
I hope this was clear and informative for all of you, I wish you a good 2021!
Stay Safe!
Global Fx education
Заметка
XAUUSD HAS REACHED THE WEEKLY DEMAND AREA WE WILL MONITOR PRICE IN THIS ZONE (GREEN) AND IN THE LOWER GREY AREA FOR LONG TERM BUY OPPURTUNITY Заметка
XAUUSD Has reached the lower GREY AREA (Right shoulder) monitor price Action for Confirmation - BUY ENTRY (1768 - 1780)Goodluck 🔥
Сделка активна
Заметка
Похожие публикации
Отказ от ответственности
Все виды контента, которые вы можете увидеть на TradingView, не являются финансовыми, инвестиционными, торговыми или любыми другими рекомендациями. Мы не предоставляем советы по покупке и продаже активов. Подробнее — в Условиях использования TradingView.