Middle East heats up, GOLD recovers despite USD strength

Despite the strength of the US Dollar, spot gold XAUUSD still increasing strongly and stably. Growing expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and falling US bond yields have provided bullish momentum for gold prices. In addition, tensions in the Middle East have stimulated gold prices to attract safe-haven buying.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 3 basis points to 4.297%, the lowest since April, after the U.S. ADP jobs report was weaker than expected.
Data released Wednesday showed U.S. companies added fewer jobs than expected in May, consistent with a recent cooling trend in the labor market.
Data released Wednesday by the ADP Research Institute, a subsidiary of private employment agency ADP, and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab show the number of private sector jobs in the United States. rose 152,000 in May. The median forecast of economists surveyed was for a rise of 175,000.

Markets speculate that the slowing economy will create conditions for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year. Traders in the federal funds futures market are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by about 50 basis points by the end of the year.

Iran's latest threat: Israel must "pay with blood"!
Summary of content related to the situation in the Middle East: Hossein Salami, commander-in-chief of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, threatened to retaliate against Israel on Wednesday (June 5). Earlier this week, Israel launched an attack in Aleppo, Syria, killing an Iranian adviser.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold continues to recover from the technical level that served as support noted by readers in the previous issue at $2,324. However, the upward momentum is temporarily limited by EMA21, an important technical point that is currently acting as the nearest resistance.

For gold to have enough technical conditions for a wider price increase in the near future, it needs to surpass the EMA21 level and then the target level is noted at the original price point of 2,400 USD.
Currently, the trend of gold prices is mainly to increase with the above conditions for price increase.

During the day, the uptrend of gold prices will be noticed by the following technical levels.
Support: 2,358 – 2,344 – 2,340 – 2,324USD
Resistance: 2,375 – 2,400USD

🪙SELL XAUUSD | 2381 - 2379

⚰️SL: 2385

⬆️TP1: 2374
⬆️TP2: 2369

🪙BUY XAUUSD | 2338 - 2340

⚰️SL: 2334

⬆️TP1: 2345
⬆️TP2: 2350

Комментарий:

Inflation reached 2% one quarter later than in March.

Сделка активна:

Plan SELL HIT TP1 +70pips. Heading to TP2😵

Сделка активна:

Plan SELL Running + 105pips💸

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🔴Gold extends decline after US Nonfarm Payrolls beats expectations

Gold (XAU/USD) falls all the way back to the $2,294s on Friday after the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data shows the US economy added 272K jobs in May when 185K had been expected. The result was also higher than the April figure which was revised down to 165K.
The US Bureau of Statistics (BLS) report showed a rise in Average Hourly Earnings of 4.1% YoY from a revised-up 4.0% in April, and beat estimates of 3.9%.  The Unemployment Rate rose to 4.0%, however, when 3.9% had been forecast from 3.9% previously.

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🔻Gold price deflates after People’s Bank of China halts further buying
Gold is trending lower at the end of the week after the news that Gold reserves at the PBoC remained unchanged at 72.8 million troy ounces at the end of May, the exact same figure as at the end of April, according to official data from the PBoC on Friday. 

🔻The data follows strong buying in April that saw China Gold reserves at the PBoC hit an all-time high, accounting for 4.9% of total reserves, and following 18 consecutive months of growth.

Комментарий:

The world gold market last week continuously received important data, causing prices to continuously reverse. Notably, on the last trading day of the week, the market suffered two shocks that caused prices to continuously "plunge".

In just 1 day, gold lost more than 3.5%, marking the largest intraday sell-off since 2020. In the current context, most analysts believe that gold prices are likely to test this level. support 2,200 USD/ounce.

Комментарий:

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World gold prices recovered slightly at the start of the morning trading session earlier this week (June 10), after the strongest sell-off in more than 2 years last Friday. Analysts believe that the prospect of gold price increases is still bright in the long term, but the price of this precious metal may continue to fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Комментарий:

- XAUUSD has remained in the range of 2,300-2,400 USD per troy ounce since mid-May. Price has fluctuated slightly. However, the price approached $2,400 per troy ounce but failed to test this level and fell below $2,300 per troy ounce.
- If XAUUSD falls further, the price could retest the range of 2,200-2,230 USD per troy ounce.
- Conversely, XAUUSD could return to $2,310-2,335 per troy ounce if the price retraces before extending the decline.

Комментарий:

🟥Treasury yields rise as investors look to Fed meeting, inflation data

U.S. Treasury yields were higher on Monday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting and key inflation data due this week.

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🟢Al Jazeera correspondent: Continuing clashes between the Palestinian resistance and the occupation forces penetrating the center of the city of Rafah.

Комментарий:

Labor market data reflect mixed signals, but taken together, they show a picture of a US economy in relatively healthy shape. This is something to celebrate, no matter how much people say "good news is bad news in terms of interest rates".

Комментарий:

🔴TDS Bank issues its forecasts for the US Federal Reserve's decisions

Experts at TDS Bank said in a research note issued on Tuesday that the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, and Chairman Jerome Powell is likely to provide messages similar to those in May.

Комментарий:

Gold prices rose slightly on Tuesday (June 11) despite a rise in the dollar, as investors awaited key US inflation data and the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. US (Fed) on June 12.

Комментарий:

Experts forecast that CPI will increase 0.1% compared to April and 3.4% compared to the same period last year. Excluding food and energy prices, core CPI is expected to increase 0.3% month-on-month and 3.5% over the same period. Although these numbers are not much, by April, we still see the possibility of inflation being higher than the Fed's 2% target. However, some economists think that key components such as insurance costs and core services will find detectability at least moving in the right direction, albeit slowly.

Комментарий:

XAUUSD touched the support level of 2290 and then recovered to 2310 with a gradual upward trend. XAUUSD's first resistance line is formed at 2330, and if this initial resistance is overcome, XAUUSD will be able to increase further towards 2350. Conversely, if XAUUSD returns to test the support level of 2290 , gold price may decrease towards 2260.

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