MQP-IER-003: 15 MIN BARS TO 8/29

HEADER - Last two posts have invalidated. So here short term to Tuesday 8/29.

SUMMARY - From last note in MQP-IER-001, down first then close strong after Powell's Jackson Hole Speech. Nothing "big" expected for some time.

DETAILS - This is just basically what short term says now. As usual, will add notes as we go.

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8/25 12:41 AM ET - 1908 AT ROUGHLY 7 AM ET:

a) just an educated guess
b) education from school of life
c) good night

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8/25 6:25 AM ET 1916.XX
a) no idea what's going to happen now
b) this bump to 1917 at this point gives too many different short term extrapolations
c) but it does flip the picture a bit by pushing up first ahead of Powell speech
d) so push here to 1919

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e) and then close the day 1906-1909
f) at this point, that's the route, but it's not a huge favorite or anything
g) sorry if that doesn't help but there's just nothing distinctly favorable here
h) it would just be a wait it out moment

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i) to be fair, it does open the window to 1926 AND 1933 CLOSE...
j) as ugly as it looks, but I can't handicap that here, it would just be wait and see

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k) 6:54 AM ET, NOTHING PAST 1923 is realistic, I checked again
l) but can't say it favors a hard move down either
m) stumped at the moment

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n) ok, so 1920 then 1905, thats the most realistic route here
o) but can't say that's a favorite or anytthing

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p) 7:22 AM ET
q) 1919-1920, then 1905, then maybe even 1895 close
r) that is the in-theory favorite

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s) 7:42 AM ET, that's what it set up for...
t) 1920 to 1885 and we should know by 11:15 AM ET
u) see you at 10:00 AM ET sharp to see some shenanigans

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v) 8:20 AM ET 1919.XX 105 minutes to TO POWELL (marketwatch calendar says 10:05)
w) theoretical ceiling is 1923.xx, past that it should only spend a minute or two there
x) and rug pull immediately,

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y) 9:50 AM ET, 15 min before Powell, 1915.XX, setup for rugpull to 1885 by 11:30 AM ET is in place
z) only question is it going to do what the curves say it should do?

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10:01 AM ET 1915.xx from 1917.xx
1) that mini bounce sets up the drop
2) it's 9:02 as I type and we are 1911.xx

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3) typo 10:02 I mean

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4) and 10:03 and I just saw 1919 again.. this is a bit pointless

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5) finally 10:05 and a minute over 1921
6) next 85 minutes solves this puzzle at least for today

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7) 10:09 AM ET, will this channel stick?

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8) 10:21 AM ET 1914.xx after double topping at 1922.5
9) POWELL finished a few minutes ago
10) the chart looks pretty the same as it did 16 minutes ago...

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11) so setup now looks like this:

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12) we need this to break:

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13) and it just did while I was typing

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14) and bounced up, now we need this to hold:

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15) excellent, now we need this to hold:

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16) see this box??

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a) in chart above:
b) fractals say price will go SIDEWAYS IN THAT BOX BEFORE IT CONTINUES DOWN

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c) but at 10:35 AM ET, it looks resistance bold line will fail

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d) and it just did::

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e) I'll stay as long as I can, but after 11:00 AM ET, I'm really pressed to go
f) so I have another 20-25 min

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g) question, does it really say it will hit 1885 by 11:30 AM ET??
h) well yeah, but I've been wrong how many times now I should quit doing this
i) ooh, under 1907 now...

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j) for the record...
1) this post (chart at top) was not really too far off for price action into Powell's
speech
2) bc we did hit that low 1911 before hitting 1922 twice
3) bu that was only recognizable at around 7 AM ET...
4) other wise, it does seem (at this second in time) that IER-001 SHOULD continue to hold
5) replay here:

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6) bars are still updating, but check later, you'll be as surprised as I am this morning

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k) so I moved the box up where it should be and filled out the fan:

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l) all we now is this:

m) and for it to finish the second leg down

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n) so see this vertical at 11:26 PM ET?

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o) typo, AM ET:

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p) JUST BROKE THE BOX!!

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q) anyway, the BEAR MOMENTUM ENDS RIGHT AROUND 11:26, that's why I have it there
r) so regardless of what price action seem like... be VERY CAREFUL SHORTING AFTER THAT TIME

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s) meanwhile, back into the box ew:

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t) box expired so here is hard stop at 1908, for people who trade very short term:

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u) not looking too hot here:

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v) so I am out of time again
w) hope you did ok today, good luck the rest of it!
x) for the purposes of continuing where I am leaving off.. .this post chart is no good
y) I am too busy to make another one
z) so we'll see what happens the rest of today first and I ll post something here

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8/25 11:12 AM ET 1905.XX

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a) for chart above:
b) an update of the time expiration for this short has it sit at about 11:40-ish
c) so an extra 14 minutes
d) and yes, it matters a big deal

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e) I don't know about 1885, but 1895 looks really reasonable considering the bearish setup we have
f) that's a wrap for me

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g) later from my car
h) extra 14 min was full of sh...

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i) we still on track for 1885 by Monday this time