XAU/USD Weekly Outlook: Brace for Bearish Momentum
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Current Market Structure and Phases
Primary Phase: We’re in a Wyckoff Distribution Phase moving from Phase B (Testing of supply) towards Phase C (Market confirmation of weakness).
Phase B: This phase contains a SOW (Sign of Weakness), where the price has broken support levels, indicating a strong selling interest.
Phase C: Expected to confirm this distribution phase as prices break further down, suggesting continuation of bearish momentum.
Key Levels
Resistance Line (BC Distribution Line) at approximately 2,740.6 - This acts as a ceiling for price; any rally towards this level is likely to encounter significant selling pressure.
Support Line (AR Distribution Line) at around 2,714.9 - A key level to watch; if breached, it signals further downside.
Elliott Wave Structure
Wave 5 Completion: The chart suggests the end of Wave 5 in multiple timeframes, which often leads to a corrective phase.
ABC Correction Pattern: Following the Wave 5 peak, an ABC corrective wave is anticipated. The chart projects Wave A downwards with expected retracement up to Wave B around 2,713.32 level, followed by a further drop in Wave C.
Harmonic and Smart Money Concepts
Bearish Order Block (1H): A sell zone established from previous bearish action, likely to restrict upward movements and signal more sell-offs if revisited.
CHoCH (Change of Character): A shift in price behavior from a bullish to a bearish trend, observed in this distribution structure.
Retail Stop Loss Zone (4H): Located around 2,705, this is a liquidity zone where retail traders are likely to have stop losses. A move below this level could trigger more selling.
Indicators and Oscillators
MACD: Currently showing bearish momentum with potential for continued downside pressure.
Bearish Divergence: Observed on the oscillator, aligning with the end of Wave 5 and confirming a potential downtrend.
Weekly Outlook Summary (Mon-Fri)
Monday (M): Expect a potential retest of the resistance line near 2,740.6 before a further drop.
Tuesday (T): The beginning of Phase C should confirm bearish momentum with a breakdown below 2,714.9 if selling pressure persists.
Wednesday (W): Continuation of the downtrend as the market completes Wave B correction, with a downward bias toward Retail Stop Loss zones.
Thursday (T): Expect some consolidation before another leg down to complete Wave C.
Friday (F): A probable low for the week as Wave C reaches completion around 2,695-2,700.
In summary, the overall sentiment for XAU/USD next week leans bearish, with key levels providing resistance and support cues.
Primary Phase: We’re in a Wyckoff Distribution Phase moving from Phase B (Testing of supply) towards Phase C (Market confirmation of weakness).
Phase B: This phase contains a SOW (Sign of Weakness), where the price has broken support levels, indicating a strong selling interest.
Phase C: Expected to confirm this distribution phase as prices break further down, suggesting continuation of bearish momentum.
Key Levels
Resistance Line (BC Distribution Line) at approximately 2,740.6 - This acts as a ceiling for price; any rally towards this level is likely to encounter significant selling pressure.
Support Line (AR Distribution Line) at around 2,714.9 - A key level to watch; if breached, it signals further downside.
Elliott Wave Structure
Wave 5 Completion: The chart suggests the end of Wave 5 in multiple timeframes, which often leads to a corrective phase.
ABC Correction Pattern: Following the Wave 5 peak, an ABC corrective wave is anticipated. The chart projects Wave A downwards with expected retracement up to Wave B around 2,713.32 level, followed by a further drop in Wave C.
Harmonic and Smart Money Concepts
Bearish Order Block (1H): A sell zone established from previous bearish action, likely to restrict upward movements and signal more sell-offs if revisited.
CHoCH (Change of Character): A shift in price behavior from a bullish to a bearish trend, observed in this distribution structure.
Retail Stop Loss Zone (4H): Located around 2,705, this is a liquidity zone where retail traders are likely to have stop losses. A move below this level could trigger more selling.
Indicators and Oscillators
MACD: Currently showing bearish momentum with potential for continued downside pressure.
Bearish Divergence: Observed on the oscillator, aligning with the end of Wave 5 and confirming a potential downtrend.
Weekly Outlook Summary (Mon-Fri)
Monday (M): Expect a potential retest of the resistance line near 2,740.6 before a further drop.
Tuesday (T): The beginning of Phase C should confirm bearish momentum with a breakdown below 2,714.9 if selling pressure persists.
Wednesday (W): Continuation of the downtrend as the market completes Wave B correction, with a downward bias toward Retail Stop Loss zones.
Thursday (T): Expect some consolidation before another leg down to complete Wave C.
Friday (F): A probable low for the week as Wave C reaches completion around 2,695-2,700.
In summary, the overall sentiment for XAU/USD next week leans bearish, with key levels providing resistance and support cues.
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