XAUUSD: Will the decline continue after the conflict?

2 окт.

Yesterday, the US dollar index rose for the second consecutive trading day, hitting a two-week high, supported by data showing the resilience of the US labor market and the dual support of safe-haven currency properties.

It stands to reason that the rise of the US dollar index will suppress gold and cause it to fall. However, due to the sudden escalation of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel, the demand for safe havens has been greatly boosted, resulting in a rare rise in gold and the US dollar together.

The escalation of the geopolitical crisis in the Middle East has indeed greatly affected the direction of gold, but as of now, I don’t think gold supports the momentum to continue to rise sharply.

Judging from the news, the rise in gold is due to the situation in the Middle East. If the situation in the Middle East eases next, or the situation is not as tense as the first day, then gold will still fall as it rose.

Unless the situation in the Middle East will intensify in the future, and it will be more violent than yesterday’s conflict

From the figure, we can see that the Fibonacci retracement of 0.618 from yesterday’s high of 2673 and today’s low of 2645 is 2655. As long as the rebound does not exceed 0.618, it is bound to fall to a new low.

The short position I held yesterday suffered a slight loss due to the sudden outbreak of the Middle East conflict, but I added positions at 2655 and 2666 respectively, which increased the average price and is now profitable.

In summary, I still have a bearish view, so I will continue to hold short positions.

2 окт.

Сделка активна

The ADP data just released is 143,000, which is higher than the forecast of 120,000 and significantly higher than the previous value of 103,000. This is a big positive for gold. We continue to maintain our bearish view and wait for profit growth.

2 окт.

Сделка активна

Gold just rebounded, but then fell again