Gann Fans - Gold - Five year outlook

26 янв. 2020 г.

Period of falling volatility dominated by all time high and current PoC of 1366

1 дек. 2023 г.

Заметка

Triple (quadruple at this timescale) top ~2000 at top rails of 2sig trend pattern (should be outside ~5% of time). Now expect to confirm medium-term downtrend for a few years, passing through PoC (~1400 in 2025-6?) and testing 1000 (50~61.8% retrace).

Expect to see the Gann Fan mirrored forward from 2025-6 (at this 22~23 year cycle timeframe this fan is likely accurate within ~1 year, and it looks like it could repeat the sharp decline of 2012~13, 11~12 years later, back to the PoC, and recentering on uptrend pattern).

Over the next five years, expect Gold/Silver to retest ~100 then fall to ~50 and stabilize around 66.6.

1 дек. 2023 г.

Заметка

N.B. 66.6% Gann retrace from ~2000 to ~666 seems unlikely - more likely is the downtrend will be cut short at 50~61.8 Fib levels by safe haven, nice number, and government buying (but that's bringing in fundamentals rather than just relying on the technicals). In fact, the fundamental question is what political events will allow it to spike below 1000 (and the height/depth of spikes is always very variable and volume dependent). Monthly and Quarterly candle bodies (open/close) are more important to track than the wicks (high/low).