XAUUSD : Gold fell sharply after the PMI data
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The USD and Gold futures fell as investors waited for two important economic reports
USD and gold both fell today as investors waited for two important economic reports later this week.
Tomorrow the US Q4 GDP report will be released and will be followed by the PCE report for December on Friday.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release its initial GDP estimate. In the Dow Jones survey, economists predicted that the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States will increase 1.7% for the final quarter of 2023.
On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its latest information on inflation, releasing its PCE index for December. Core PCE is expected to increase 0.2% on the month and 3% year-over-year. If actual figures match estimates, the PCE figure will fall from 3.2% in November to 3% in December. This will be a strong sign that inflation continues to decline.
Both USD and gold fell slightly, but have since recovered from their intraday lows. Today's report showed business sales increased in January and inflation appeared to have fallen sharply as prices fell to their lowest level in more than 3.5 years.
The DXY index fell to 102.78 and currently stands at 103.276. Gold futures reached a bottom of $2011.70 and are currently standing at $2016.
If tomorrow's Q4 GDP and Friday's December PCE report are in line with estimates, the Fed will have reason to believe inflation is approaching its target level.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is only a 1.6% chance of a rate cut this month and a 41.3% chance of a 25bps cut in March. There is a strong possibility that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates during the meeting. FOMC meeting in May or before. The forecast tool has a 10.7% chance that the Fed will move its benchmark interest rate to between 4.75% - 5%, a 55% chance that it will be between 4.5% - 4.75%, and a 33.8% chance of a gain. Rates are in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% after the May meeting.
USD and gold both fell today as investors waited for two important economic reports later this week.
Tomorrow the US Q4 GDP report will be released and will be followed by the PCE report for December on Friday.
On Thursday, the Commerce Department will release its initial GDP estimate. In the Dow Jones survey, economists predicted that the total value of all goods and services produced in the United States will increase 1.7% for the final quarter of 2023.
On Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will release its latest information on inflation, releasing its PCE index for December. Core PCE is expected to increase 0.2% on the month and 3% year-over-year. If actual figures match estimates, the PCE figure will fall from 3.2% in November to 3% in December. This will be a strong sign that inflation continues to decline.
Both USD and gold fell slightly, but have since recovered from their intraday lows. Today's report showed business sales increased in January and inflation appeared to have fallen sharply as prices fell to their lowest level in more than 3.5 years.
The DXY index fell to 102.78 and currently stands at 103.276. Gold futures reached a bottom of $2011.70 and are currently standing at $2016.
If tomorrow's Q4 GDP and Friday's December PCE report are in line with estimates, the Fed will have reason to believe inflation is approaching its target level.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, there is only a 1.6% chance of a rate cut this month and a 41.3% chance of a 25bps cut in March. There is a strong possibility that the Fed will begin cutting interest rates during the meeting. FOMC meeting in May or before. The forecast tool has a 10.7% chance that the Fed will move its benchmark interest rate to between 4.75% - 5%, a 55% chance that it will be between 4.5% - 4.75%, and a 33.8% chance of a gain. Rates are in the range of 4.25% - 4.5% after the May meeting.
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