Impending USA Stimulus Will Give a Boost Before Liquidation

23 мар. 2020 г.

With the US government failing to pass a key procedural vote this afternoon (Sunday),this will likely provide further liquidation in Gold, however, it is likely the liquidation will be somewhat muted as we can assume at some point this week - sooner than later - a stimulus package will come.

What this will do is somewhat put a temporary halt to stock selling and thereby limit liquidation in Gold to probably around 1480. Now of course, if they fail to reach a "deal" than Gold can drop below 1480, however, I cannot see a deal being not agreed upon at this point.

Once we hit roughly 1540-1560 that will likely be the end of the temporary bull and from there I expect a sharp corrective wave below 1400. Before the cycle bottoms I believe we will hit the mid 1300s.

Its going to be an extremely tough call to find the specific bottom because this will be a generational buying opportunity in which this will be the last cheap buy for many years to come.

The bottom in Gold will be anywhere from 1320-1390 and my estimate is strongly in the 1350-1360 range (not necessarily intraday - it could be over futures). Anything below 1400, which will happen, will be a time to start introducing buys bit by bit.

- zSplit

23 мар. 2020 г.

Заметка

Gold is performing like I said. On Friday I said we would break-down below 1500 and Gold broke-down to 1480 overnight. Therefore, I was correct here.

I then updated my idea when the 'news' changed. Once again my idea panned out.

BRIEF ANALYSIS
We can see further upside to my 1560 range and possibly an overshoot level to the 1580s as the stimulus is "getting close" as per USA news from Congress.

Do not chase this rally as in-time before May, Gold will succumb to further liquidation and test 1400.

- zSplit

24 мар. 2020 г.

Заметка

Gold and silver continue to rise quicker as a stimulus bill is around the corner.

If 1590 breaks we can expect possibly a 1620 retest.

For now we can expect silver to approach 14.5 and gold to 1590s.

Regardless, Gold and Silver will succumb to eventual liquidation and sharply drop in the near term. Do not get greedy and be prepared to take profit.

24 мар. 2020 г.

Заметка

Gold may have hit a secondary near term top around 1580 which is inline with my 1560-1580 forecast.

I suspect we could retest this number and rise above slightly. Either way, this was a fake out and I expect Gold to eventually fall into the lower 1400s and upper 1300s.

I would not necessarily short from here but I would have taken profit overnight in futures or late Monday intraday.

I expect more liquidate for precious metals and the US dollar to top 105.

- zSplit

24 мар. 2020 г.

Заметка

*NEW UPDATE*

Gold has hit my upper trend-line of 1620 which i noted as an additional comment if we broke 1590 which we clearly did.

Although there was a reasonable chance Gold would have topped around where I originally suggested at 1580, it appears algos have bought more stocks (off of historic Fed policy and US stimulus), which is limiting the downside for metals right now; decreasing bond buying; and putting a break to the DXY.

Now that we have hit 1620 it is time to take profit even if the market wants to shoot higher.

The DXY is only at a temporary 'rest period' and will likely hit 105 at-least before topping out. At this expense, Gold and Silver and equities will likely have 1 more leg down by about 10-15%.

I recommend profit taking in precious metals, and not chasing this rally.

- zSplit

24 мар. 2020 г.

Заметка

*NEW UPDATE*

Gold seems to be rallying off low volume. This COULD be indicative of a false break-out.

Be very careful. I recommend taking profit before the end of today (Tuesday) in-case this falls sharply in overnight trading.

Remember, its better to miss out on some money, then losing your gains...

- zSplit