Gold analsysi and trade idea 15 August,
Highlights
📉 Gold is within a rising bull flag on the daily chart.
📊 CPI data showed inflation control but not a decisive win for the Fed.
💵 CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 36% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
🔻 Resistance at 2457-2461 is crucial for potential short entries.
📉 Break below 2450-2451 could lead to new lows around 2435-2440.
📈 Buying opportunities exist only above 2460-2461 with confirmation.
⚠️ Stay cautious; recent dips have been met with buying pressure.
Key Insights
📈 Rising Bull Flag: Gold’s daily chart shows it is still within a rising bull flag, indicating potential upward momentum if it breaks resistance. However, bearish signals are also present.
🔍 CPI Data Impact: Although CPI data suggests inflation is under control, it wasn’t definitive, leading to a reassessment of interest rate expectations and impacting gold’s price.
📊 Rate Cut Expectations: The change in rate cut probability from 60% to 36% suggests that the market has adjusted its expectations, which may keep gold prices under pressure in the short term.
🔄 Short Entry Levels: A confirmed bearish reversal around the 2457-2461 resistance zone provides a strategic entry point for short positions, with a target near 2430-2440.
📉 Breakout Levels: A break below 2450-2451 is critical; if this occurs, it could signal a downward trend toward lower support levels.
⚖️ Caution Advised: Despite bearish indicators, the market has shown resilience, with buyers stepping in on dips, so careful analysis of entry points is essential.
🚦 Confirmation Needed for Buys: Only an impulsive break above 2460-2461 will validate a bullish stance; patience is key in volatile conditions.
📉 Gold is within a rising bull flag on the daily chart.
📊 CPI data showed inflation control but not a decisive win for the Fed.
💵 CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 36% chance of a 50 basis point rate cut in September.
🔻 Resistance at 2457-2461 is crucial for potential short entries.
📉 Break below 2450-2451 could lead to new lows around 2435-2440.
📈 Buying opportunities exist only above 2460-2461 with confirmation.
⚠️ Stay cautious; recent dips have been met with buying pressure.
Key Insights
📈 Rising Bull Flag: Gold’s daily chart shows it is still within a rising bull flag, indicating potential upward momentum if it breaks resistance. However, bearish signals are also present.
🔍 CPI Data Impact: Although CPI data suggests inflation is under control, it wasn’t definitive, leading to a reassessment of interest rate expectations and impacting gold’s price.
📊 Rate Cut Expectations: The change in rate cut probability from 60% to 36% suggests that the market has adjusted its expectations, which may keep gold prices under pressure in the short term.
🔄 Short Entry Levels: A confirmed bearish reversal around the 2457-2461 resistance zone provides a strategic entry point for short positions, with a target near 2430-2440.
📉 Breakout Levels: A break below 2450-2451 is critical; if this occurs, it could signal a downward trend toward lower support levels.
⚖️ Caution Advised: Despite bearish indicators, the market has shown resilience, with buyers stepping in on dips, so careful analysis of entry points is essential.
🚦 Confirmation Needed for Buys: Only an impulsive break above 2460-2461 will validate a bullish stance; patience is key in volatile conditions.
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