Gold update CPI 14.02

14 февр. 2023 г.

Gold probably will consolidate around central pivot before CPI. Price may go up a bit, pricing in that CPI will show lower inflation, because these are the expectations.

Macroeconomics

Last few months CPI data showed that inflation went down significantly and the this gave some peace to the FED with the Interest rates, although they always said that probably will need to increase the rates further.

Last NFP showed much better than expected data, which is showing us that labor market is incredibly strong.

Based on the strong labor market and the fact that CPI showed lower inflation last few times I speculate that this time CPI will show higher inflation or same as previous month.

So the expectations are that inflation will go down and if CPI show surprise data, Gold will decline.

1) CPI - lower inflation as forecasted - gold will go up
2) CPI - higher inflation or the same - gold will go down


CPI


On this chart we can see how Gold reacted to the previous reading.


Technicals

Gold is under heavy bearish manipulation.
Two days ago price formed doji and had a chance to reverse at least for a while, instead Gold dropped further. In my opinion the "reversal pattern" failed.

I am still expecting 1840-1845 area to be met, before some bullish moves. It is a strong area - 50% of an order block and cluster of pivot points.


Yields



Yields are going up and I think they have more room for a bullish moves.


GDX



Based on this chart I think that Gold will go down further.


Gold vs Silver



Based on this chart, my opinion is that Gold should go down if not will close as doji day.