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XAU/USD (Gold vs. US Dollar) - October 14, 2024
Обновлено
Key Events Influencing XAU/USD:
US Economic Data (Retail Sales, Inflation):
Strong Data: Supports a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, boosting the USD and putting downward pressure on gold.
Weak Data: Reduces rate hike expectations, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
Federal Reserve Speeches (Kashkari, Waller, Daly, Goolsbee):
Hawkish Remarks: Reinforces a stronger USD, likely pushing gold lower.
Dovish Remarks: Could signal lower rates, which may push gold prices higher.
Technical Breakdown
1. 1-Day Timeframe:
Elliott Wave Analysis:
The chart displays a completed 5-wave bullish impulsive structure, indicating the end of a bullish move.
A CHoCH (Change of Character) within Wave 1 hints at an early sign of trend reversal.
The Break of Structure (BOS) confirms a potential downside shift after the 5-wave sequence.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 retracement ($2,654): Acting as a critical resistance during the ongoing corrective phase.
0.786 retracement ($2,668): Higher resistance, with potential for a deeper correction before the downtrend resumes.
Wyckoff Distribution:
A Wyckoff Distribution pattern is emerging, particularly in Phase B. An Upthrust (UT) suggests that sellers are starting to distribute their positions.
Automatic Rally (AR) and Secondary Test (ST) confirm the potential for distribution, signaling the market is likely preparing for further downside.
Invalidation Point and Resistance:
The $2,685 level serves as a key invalidation point for the bearish wave count. If price breaks above this, it negates the bearish outlook.
$2,670 resistance indicates where sellers are likely to become cautious, further confirming a potential downside.
2. 3-Hour Timeframe:
Impulsive Wave Structure (1-5):
Price is currently in a Wave 3 of a 5-wave impulsive decline.
Wave 1 has completed, and Wave 2 retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($2,654).
Wave 3 is expected to drive the price lower, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $2,532.
Market Structure Break (MSB) and CHoCH:
A CHoCH and BOS on the 3-hour chart align with the start of a bearish trend.
Internal BOS confirms sellers maintain control, despite minor corrective rallies.
Target Projections:
Short-term target: Between $2,532 - $2,551.
Long-term outlook: Continues to be bearish, especially if corrective support is broken.
Expected Outlook for the Next 2 Weeks:
Primary Scenario (Bearish):
After a correction to the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($2,654), gold is expected to resume its downtrend.
A break below the short-term support could see the price decline further to $2,532.
Secondary Scenario (Bullish):
If price breaks above $2,668, a further rally toward $2,685 could occur. This would invalidate the current bearish structure and point to a shift in sentiment, possibly driven by dovish Fed remarks or weak US economic data.
Key Risk Levels:
$2,685: This is the critical invalidation point. If price exceeds this level, the bearish structure will be negated, prompting a re-evaluation of the market outlook.
Conclusion:
The technical outlook for XAU/USD remains bearish, with the market in a corrective phase. Resistance is expected between $2,654-$2,668, followed by a potential move lower toward $2,532 in the coming weeks. This analysis is supported by multiple technical indicators such as Elliott Wave theory, Wyckoff Distribution, Fibonacci levels, and market structure breaks. The expectation of continued downside pressure holds unless key resistance levels are breached, which would prompt a re-assessment of the trend.
US Economic Data (Retail Sales, Inflation):
Strong Data: Supports a hawkish Federal Reserve stance, boosting the USD and putting downward pressure on gold.
Weak Data: Reduces rate hike expectations, making non-yielding assets like gold more attractive.
Federal Reserve Speeches (Kashkari, Waller, Daly, Goolsbee):
Hawkish Remarks: Reinforces a stronger USD, likely pushing gold lower.
Dovish Remarks: Could signal lower rates, which may push gold prices higher.
Technical Breakdown
1. 1-Day Timeframe:
Elliott Wave Analysis:
The chart displays a completed 5-wave bullish impulsive structure, indicating the end of a bullish move.
A CHoCH (Change of Character) within Wave 1 hints at an early sign of trend reversal.
The Break of Structure (BOS) confirms a potential downside shift after the 5-wave sequence.
Fibonacci Levels:
0.618 retracement ($2,654): Acting as a critical resistance during the ongoing corrective phase.
0.786 retracement ($2,668): Higher resistance, with potential for a deeper correction before the downtrend resumes.
Wyckoff Distribution:
A Wyckoff Distribution pattern is emerging, particularly in Phase B. An Upthrust (UT) suggests that sellers are starting to distribute their positions.
Automatic Rally (AR) and Secondary Test (ST) confirm the potential for distribution, signaling the market is likely preparing for further downside.
Invalidation Point and Resistance:
The $2,685 level serves as a key invalidation point for the bearish wave count. If price breaks above this, it negates the bearish outlook.
$2,670 resistance indicates where sellers are likely to become cautious, further confirming a potential downside.
2. 3-Hour Timeframe:
Impulsive Wave Structure (1-5):
Price is currently in a Wave 3 of a 5-wave impulsive decline.
Wave 1 has completed, and Wave 2 retraced to the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($2,654).
Wave 3 is expected to drive the price lower, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension around $2,532.
Market Structure Break (MSB) and CHoCH:
A CHoCH and BOS on the 3-hour chart align with the start of a bearish trend.
Internal BOS confirms sellers maintain control, despite minor corrective rallies.
Target Projections:
Short-term target: Between $2,532 - $2,551.
Long-term outlook: Continues to be bearish, especially if corrective support is broken.
Expected Outlook for the Next 2 Weeks:
Primary Scenario (Bearish):
After a correction to the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($2,654), gold is expected to resume its downtrend.
A break below the short-term support could see the price decline further to $2,532.
Secondary Scenario (Bullish):
If price breaks above $2,668, a further rally toward $2,685 could occur. This would invalidate the current bearish structure and point to a shift in sentiment, possibly driven by dovish Fed remarks or weak US economic data.
Key Risk Levels:
$2,685: This is the critical invalidation point. If price exceeds this level, the bearish structure will be negated, prompting a re-evaluation of the market outlook.
Conclusion:
The technical outlook for XAU/USD remains bearish, with the market in a corrective phase. Resistance is expected between $2,654-$2,668, followed by a potential move lower toward $2,532 in the coming weeks. This analysis is supported by multiple technical indicators such as Elliott Wave theory, Wyckoff Distribution, Fibonacci levels, and market structure breaks. The expectation of continued downside pressure holds unless key resistance levels are breached, which would prompt a re-assessment of the trend.
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