XAU USD - short battle before a longterm continuation

23 авг. 2020 г.

Hello traders and analysts,

This is marked as short for short term but overall bullish gold - just as liquidations occur during "summer period".

Here is our take on XAU [gold]
COT DATA:

AVG Longs Shorts Total long short
Avg_13 306,481 65,875 372,356 82% 18%
Avg_20 298,457 54,145 352,601 85% 15%
Avg_130 265,613 90,138 355,751 74% 26%


Technicals
Heavy longs from both non commercial and retail investors.
Daily longs are still in play
Weekly longs
Monthly long
Retrace is occurring on the weekly time frame - but can this be building up
Fibonacci level aligns of 50% around 1939 and 61.8% at 1907.00 USD.
This retracement zone will show a great long identification
Retrace needed to to confirm liquidity from the strong demand.


Fundamentals
Keep an eye on GBP JPY for correlation -as this moves negatively on positive gold and opposite to negative gold moves.
Also US treasury yield curves - will send shock waves into the Yellow metal - this is important to understand how the US government has weakened their currency to seem more attractive and create a printing bubble which from an economic standpoint with rising national US Debt - taking away the safehaven power shift will present investors rushing to assets in order to create demand. The USD will maintain in profit taking and realisation of over value, the price will see stocks fall.
Keep an eye on August September - October being a pinnacle month for shift in supply demand - timing before the election also.


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