Золото / Доллар СШАДлинная
GOLD has broken out of the profit-taking trend
Supported by tensions in the Middle East and US election tensions, XAUUSD broke out of the profit-taking trend and then recovered in the last trading session of the week.
As a hedge against political and economic instability,XAUUSD is up more than 32% this year and has renewed all-time highs multiple times. This is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the market's need to hedge, creating a rising storm in precious metals like gold.
Uncertainty about the US presidential election also boosted gold demand as polls showed the race for the White House remained tight.
The Dollar increased for the fourth consecutive week as Trump's chances of victory increased. Gold increased despite the stronger Dollar because these two assets both have separate supports that are outside the influence of each other in terms of direct correlation.
The COMEX gold speculative contract increased its net long position by 6,806 lots to 242,089 lots. This increase shows that the market's optimism towards gold has continued to increase.
What should gold traders focus on in the current market context?
Important events in the gold market this week mainly focus on geopolitical and economic policies. The following are key events and data affecting the gold market currently and in the near future.
1. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up
Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip this week have killed and injured many Palestinians. This incident not only caused risk aversion in the market but also caused investors to rush into gold. The war in the Middle East is also increasingly showing signs of spreading further in the near future, this is certainly a very potential support for gold.
2. Uncertainty of the election of the President of the United States
About the US presidential election The US presidential election is approaching Public opinion polls show that the election situation is still deadlocked and the market is very sensitive to the uncertainty of the election results .
This factor has increased investor demand for gold and demand for gold bars continues to be strong. Domestic political turmoil in the United States has increased market demand for a safe haven and further strengthened gold's position as a safe haven asset.
3. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
The Federal Reserve announced a 50bps interest rate cut, and this policy measure further supported gold's rise. The interest rate cuts have made the US Dollar less attractive, causing investors to switch to unprofitable assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices. At the same time, in a low interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased and this has caused gold prices to increase more than 32% this year.
4. Impact of the US Dollar on gold prices
It is worth noting that the US Dollar continued its upward trend this week, but it did not put too much pressure on gold prices. This is because gold and the US Dollar are being influenced by two different factors, on the one hand gold is supported by the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical instability, on the other hand the US Dollar is supported by the possibility of Trump's "coronation" as President.
General baseline assessment
The overall fundamental picture shows that gold is almost the top choice with solid supportive market conditions, from monetary policy to instability, geopolitical conflicts continue to risk spreading along with the uncertainty of the US presidential election.
Even if a direct correlation like the US Dollar increases, gold is still not affected by it.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Tuesday: JOLTS Jobs
Wednesday: ADP jobs data, Q3 GDP, US pending home sales, Bank of Japan monetary policy decision.
Thursday: Core PCE, Personal income and spending, Weekly unemployment claims
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls; ISM manufacturing PMI index
![GOLD MARKET ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY - [October 28 - November 01]](https://s3.tradingview.com/n/nIWXR8UL_mid.png)
Analysis of technical prospects forXAUUSD
Technically, gold has no structural changes with an upward trend in both short, medium and long term from price channels.
After gold corrected, it recovered from the price channel, receiving support from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension and the lower edge of the price channel that readers noticed last week. The price recovery helped gold break above the $2,741 1% Fibonacci extension price point.
The current closing position gives gold the conditions to continue to increase with a target of 2,748 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,758 USD.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and notable technical levels for gold's uptrend are listed below.
Support: 2,720 – 2,711USD
Resistance: 2,748 – 2,758USD - … New ATH
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2771
→Take Profit 1 2760
↨
→Take Profit 2 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2695
→Take Profit 1 2706
↨
→Take Profit 2 2711
XAUUSD broke out of the profit-taking trend and then recovered in the last trading session of the week.As a hedge against political and economic instability,
XAUUSD is up more than 32% this year and has renewed all-time highs multiple times. This is mainly due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the market's need to hedge, creating a rising storm in precious metals like gold.Uncertainty about the US presidential election also boosted gold demand as polls showed the race for the White House remained tight.
The Dollar increased for the fourth consecutive week as Trump's chances of victory increased. Gold increased despite the stronger Dollar because these two assets both have separate supports that are outside the influence of each other in terms of direct correlation.
The COMEX gold speculative contract increased its net long position by 6,806 lots to 242,089 lots. This increase shows that the market's optimism towards gold has continued to increase.
What should gold traders focus on in the current market context?
Important events in the gold market this week mainly focus on geopolitical and economic policies. The following are key events and data affecting the gold market currently and in the near future.
1. Tensions in the Middle East are heating up
Israeli air strikes on the Gaza Strip this week have killed and injured many Palestinians. This incident not only caused risk aversion in the market but also caused investors to rush into gold. The war in the Middle East is also increasingly showing signs of spreading further in the near future, this is certainly a very potential support for gold.
2. Uncertainty of the election of the President of the United States
About the US presidential election The US presidential election is approaching Public opinion polls show that the election situation is still deadlocked and the market is very sensitive to the uncertainty of the election results .
This factor has increased investor demand for gold and demand for gold bars continues to be strong. Domestic political turmoil in the United States has increased market demand for a safe haven and further strengthened gold's position as a safe haven asset.
3. The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates
The Federal Reserve announced a 50bps interest rate cut, and this policy measure further supported gold's rise. The interest rate cuts have made the US Dollar less attractive, causing investors to switch to unprofitable assets such as gold, pushing up gold prices. At the same time, in a low interest rate environment, the opportunity cost of holding gold has decreased and this has caused gold prices to increase more than 32% this year.
4. Impact of the US Dollar on gold prices
It is worth noting that the US Dollar continued its upward trend this week, but it did not put too much pressure on gold prices. This is because gold and the US Dollar are being influenced by two different factors, on the one hand gold is supported by the Fed's monetary policy and geopolitical instability, on the other hand the US Dollar is supported by the possibility of Trump's "coronation" as President.
General baseline assessment
The overall fundamental picture shows that gold is almost the top choice with solid supportive market conditions, from monetary policy to instability, geopolitical conflicts continue to risk spreading along with the uncertainty of the US presidential election.
Even if a direct correlation like the US Dollar increases, gold is still not affected by it.
Economic data to watch out for this week
Tuesday: JOLTS Jobs
Wednesday: ADP jobs data, Q3 GDP, US pending home sales, Bank of Japan monetary policy decision.
Thursday: Core PCE, Personal income and spending, Weekly unemployment claims
Friday: US nonfarm payrolls; ISM manufacturing PMI index
Analysis of technical prospects for
XAUUSD Technically, gold has no structural changes with an upward trend in both short, medium and long term from price channels.
After gold corrected, it recovered from the price channel, receiving support from the 0.786% Fibonacci extension and the lower edge of the price channel that readers noticed last week. The price recovery helped gold break above the $2,741 1% Fibonacci extension price point.
The current closing position gives gold the conditions to continue to increase with a target of 2,748 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,758 USD.
As long as gold remains within the price channel, it still has a bullish outlook in the short term, and notable technical levels for gold's uptrend are listed below.
Support: 2,720 – 2,711USD
Resistance: 2,748 – 2,758USD - … New ATH
SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2767 - 2765⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2771
→Take Profit 1 2760
↨
→Take Profit 2 2755
BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2699 - 2701⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2695
→Take Profit 1 2706
↨
→Take Profit 2 2711
Заметка
XAU/USD recovered during the session and climbed above the $2,740/oz mark entering Monday's European session.Заметка
Gold prices recovered to approach the session's peakЗаметка
World gold prices have continued to expand their upward momentum, fluctuating around the threshold of 2,750 USD/ounce. Currently, traders are waiting for a series of US economic data this week to get more information about the future policy direction of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Key data to be released this week include the private sector jobs report, core personal consumption expenditures figures and nonfarm payrolls.Заметка
Заметка
⚫Gold: Gold price is currently at 2748.96 USD/ounce, looking to hold the support level of 2750 USD/ounce. If it sustains above this level, it is likely to test the resistance at $2,759.Заметка
Gold prices continued to increase, reaching a new peak of 2,790 USD/oz at noon today amid many worries about the US election.
The upward momentum appears to be unaffected by rising Treasury yields and the strengthening USD.
Заметка
Gold is approaching the session's bottom, fluctuating around 2772 USD/ozЗаметка
🔴According to news on October 30, spot gold stood at 2,790 USD/ounce, continuing to reach a record high, up 0.13% on the day.Заметка
Gold prices fell on Thursday (October 31), as prices consolidated after hitting a record high, while safe-haven demand ahead of the US presidential election helped the precious metal record a record high. 4th consecutive month of increase.
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🧩Get an average of 1200 pips per month
🧩Consulting on Risk Management
🧩Account management
🧩Forex signals have a high win rate
🚨🚨🚨FREE SIGNALS: t.me/+8q3AxDD9CsRjYzI1
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