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26 июл. 2018 г.

Bitcoin Bitmex Chart Update 26th July

Same copy as last chart but without text all over it.
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Bitcoin was a buy on a break above the 8160 line yesterday (though by time comment went live it had already broken higher, sorry- busy day yesterday all round)

It was also a buy if missed the first break on a return to the 8160 line overnight, with the low being 8163 since then.
But the rally is a little lame so far up 100 or so points..
Can raise the stop to 8240 for now.

It's effectively back in neutral, yet again in the very near term whilst trading within the range forming overnight and today bounded by support at the 8160 line and resistance at 8298-8320.

Has to break above 8320 to return to positive for rally back to 8478-8576 range.

Any break above 8600 at any point on rising volume would be extremely positive and can follow long again from that point
looking for 8863 initially and then once broken above to 9367.

Until then the best we can do is raise the stop as above or close out as close to the 8300 line for 140 points or so profit (if you were around to buy the dip overnight) and be ready to go again on a break above 8320 on rising volume.

Returning to the downside potential from here: has to break below the first support line at 8163-8155 range to trigger a 100 point scalp back to 8053.
The next support lies at 7944. It must hold up here at lowest on any retests for the uptrend to remain in tact from here.

26 июл. 2018 г.

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A lot of parallels are seeing spikes and false breaks occur in them compared to the old days when institutions and the more sophisticated trend-messing bots weren't so prevalent in the market.

But they are still there inside the noise.



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27 июл. 2018 г.

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Bitcoin Update
We were long up to the lower end of the 8298-8320 range yesterday, which did OK.
It was the high of the day yesterday and longs were closed out there.
But what wasn't cool - in hindsight at least
- was not shorting it from that point, waiting instead for a break of 8155 for a 100 point scalp to 8053 with a second scalping opportuniity from from 8053 to 7944.
Bitcoin had to hold up here at 7944 for the uptrend to remain in tact.
It didn't.
Despite the fact it's counter-rallying as this is finished it doesn't look likely to get very far before it falls away again. It should fall away from 8049 again (maybe at best it can beat 8049 and reach 8160 today but 8049 looks more likely at this point to be the counter-rally high from here.

Although we took 140 odd points from the upside yesterday and between 100 and 200 points of downside, the last short triggered on a break below 7944 has been a failure and some will have already been stopped out if running a 15-30 point stop via Bitmex. Sorry for that.

We've had 2 waves down so far. There should be at least 1 or 2 more where those came from.

It's difficult to divine how long this counter rally will last but eventually the little dynamic underpinning price is likely to give way - at which point it can be shorted again back to 7722 at least and more likely to 7589.

On the upside cannot see a buy signal emerging yet - may be wrong here but prefer to wait for lower values or at least a double bottom to emerge later on in the session before thinking of a long again from this point.