Where is Bitbitcoin today?

9 янв. 2022 г.

There are a lot of predictions about bitcoin's movements on the Internet, mostly bullish.There are based on so-called fundamentals, on so-called charts, and on data.I am a loyal chart analyst who follows the following principles: 1. Chart contains everything, 2. History will be repeated.

First, let's look at the daily line trend, here is a macd divergence, but in front of the macd gold fork, we can not confirm that the divergence must be successful.And now after falling below ma144, the market has entered a standard downward rebound cycle, even if divergence, it is not confirmed that this is the bottom.We're just looking at the rally, and we have to see if we can break through the ma144.

Second, when we look at the weekly line, many people will compare the current position with the adjustment made earlier last year, namely b and c. The trend of these two positions is similar, so many people think that it is the end of the adjustment.But I would like to suggest that there are a lot of similar trends, and in early 2018, or a, so here is the bottom logic, there is no inevitability.At the same time, if we compare the two positions of A and B, we also have a very high similarity.For example, it was also a record high at that time, the macd high dead fork, and now it is more exaggerated, the weekly macd is divergence, theoretically adjusted for a longer cycle.The goal of the weekly line adjustment should theoretically be ma144, which is the yellow line in Fig.

Third, let's look at the monthly line. If you call up the bitstamp chart (this is the most complete K-line chart I have found in the existing exchange), you can clearly see the upward trend of the 5 waves. According to the wave theory, the next step should be the downward trend of the abc.While this seems exaggerated, you see the monthly macd already facing a death crossing, and from the macd adjustment cycle, at least 6 months, so getting out of the abc may not be without.

Above is what I concluded from the chart, but any prediction is wrong, and the prediction is just a reference for our transactions.When it comes to trading, there should be a quantifiable strategy. What I have long used has been the macd + ma18 strategy, which is not the sharpest offensive weapon, but he is indeed the best balanced and the most stable strategy.

In addition, for the current position, in the end is the middle of the bull market, or the beginning of the bear market, there are some reference conditions.For example, new all-time highs appear, of course, can abandon the bear market view.Or that the weekly macd forms a gold cross.But these references may be more lagging, so for the specific operation, macd + ma18 may be more appropriate.Any strategy, there will also be the possibility of success and failure, so the strategy fails, you also have to strictly implement the stop loss, this is the qualified trade.