ridethepig | BTC Market Commentary 2019.10.21

21 окт. 2019 г.

Attention now turns to the ECB and FED where anything other than more cuts and QE Lite would be a huge shock. More interesting will be the response to the Crypto punchbowl, and it seems likely the flooding of USD supply will confirm the lows in BTC and perhaps emphasise the impact Macroeconomics has on Cryptocurrency. As such I tend to think the coming sessions will produce Crypto direction rather than noise.

Trade Bias

A broad range is now well established. Maybe the Brexit vote tomorrow can induce a break, but it will need to be a surprise outcome. General bias to fade dips towards the bottom of the range, expecting the current lows (infamous Bakkt floor) at 7,688 to hold:

For the less imminent long-term chart, I am unable to make any meaningful case for direction south, insulted from strong demand and episodes of BTC receiving inflows via risk-negativity:

The trimming of stale longs continues and I continue to believe that the right trade here is buying into $8,000, suiting my broader risk outlook and the notion that any further QE by the Fed (likely a done deal in my view) will be taken impulsively by the Crypto market:

Trading this view can be difficult of late as there is a lot of chop, keep risk light and try to be agile. As a bull I hope that support will hold. Feel free to jump in with your comments and charts to open the discussions for all to benefit from.

22 окт. 2019 г.

Заметка

A quick chart update here before NY...