XBTUSD H4 chart (8/9/2019)

9 авг. 2019 г.

Good morning, traders. Price has continued printing the triangle I spoke about a few days back. However, as mentioned yesterday, the daily printed a TD 9 sell signal. Rather than a full reversal, all it really means is that we generally expect a 1-4 candle pullback. This could lead to a reversal, but the reversal is not guaranteed nor required. As I pointed out in yesterday's live stream, during this whole bullish run we have seen price continue higher for a few thousand dollars more after the TD 9 sell signal. Again, that does not guarantee this will be the case right now, but so far that is how price action has continued to print other than in April 2019.

What I generally don't like about yesterday's candle is that it was a long-legged doji at the top of the price movement. That being said, it was three candles into consolidation at the top so it doesn't bother me as much as it would if it were at the end of the upward movement instead of within that consolidation. Price is also sitting on top of the HVN on the daily, which is generally more bullish than bearish.

The H1 printed a TD 9 buy signal a couple of hours ago which preceded this move up. H1 RSI is nearing a cross above its resistance and Stoch RSI bounce off the bottom of oversold, crossed bullishly, and is pushing out of oversold. Price found support in the HVN on the most recent move down on this TF and has bounce out of that which is bullish. We just need to see follow through to the upside now.

The H4 basically just shows price consolidating between the R1 and R2 pivots, and now finding support in this larger TF's HVN. Volume has dropped out appreciably as the triangle has printed as we would expect. Narrowing price action leads to reduced volatility and volume. RSI is printing a descending wedge but, as with the H1 RSI, I am watching for RSI to close above its descending resistance. Stoch RSI appears to be attempting to curl back up as well which is a sign that demand is overcoming supply.

The targets basically remain about the same as what we've been expecting for the past few days. We have an immediate target of $13065 based on the height of the triangle and a larger target of $15180 based on the height of the flagpole. The area surrounding the H4 R3 pivot, as mentioned previously, also remains valid as a target based on the height of the larger double bottom and descending wedge patterns. The two overlapping orange zones denote daily supply. The lower red target line appears to be within that overlap. As such, I'm particularly interested in possible short term rejection into a pullback at that point. So traders have many options to look for possible pullbacks along the way if price can get going above the triangle resistance.

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