BTCUSD hasn't shown the technical for more near term upside

9 февр. 2020 г.

There are plenty of people calling for all time high soon and right now I don't see it. The double bollinger band system is a pretty simple way of seeing how much more movement is possible based off standard deviations. the inner band contains some 95% of all price action and the outer band contains 99.7% of all price action, which is why we normally see lots of wicking and rejection at the third standard deviation. When price action is in a parabolic move you can see it moving upward between the second and third standard deviations and my own jargon for that is a bollinger band break, and you can see those in the orange ovals. These bollinger band breaks can be both bearish or bullish. The orange oval between the black ovals is a obvious bearish bollinger band break.

The black ovals show where price action got really tight. We can see the pinch on the bollinger band and we can also see the Average true range hitting a low for at least the last year. The most impulsive moves come from really tight price action and if we are hoping for a bollinger band break we would need to see that real tight price action. Right now we don't have that. The price action was tight from the consolidation on the purple trend line to the long term black resistance, which also coincides with the upper limit of the 2nd standard deviation bollinger band.

Right now we might get some wicking to 11,00 and the upper limit of the 3rd standard deviation, but that is about it for now.

The main chart shows a bullish reconciliation on the arithmetic scale. Below is the log scale and the target setting seems a bit neater. The bold blue line is the line we really need to watch. If previous support turns into resistance then the next move will be an impulsive move to the downside. Let me emphasis this

• The black line is our long term market resistance.
  
• The blue trendline is our long term market structure support for now.
  

Some very good charters are saying we don't have a market structure. We do, and this is it. This market structure runs out in late may or early june, and it has two main scenarios

• Price action finds the blue trend line as support and we break to the upside. This requires the price action to stay close to the baseline of the bollinger band. If we ride the baseline out of the triangle it is bullish and we go to all time highs.
  
• Price action slips the baseline and then the blue trend line. This would be a mega bearish event.
  

Conclusion
My previous post was a short term bearish post on bitcoin. This is a long term post and it is neutral as the resolution is based on what happens to this long term blue trend line. If it continues as support then we are bullish, if price action dips below, especially on a weekly or monthly time frame then it will be tested as resistance, and should that resistance be confirmed, over several weeks or several months we go down in a big way.