BTCUSD Downside Bias
Evening everyone. Back to my charts after a lengthy layoff. From top to bottom…
-Swing low from last December to swing high of June gives us $7237 for a .618 fib. BTC fell under that and hasn’t closed back above. Bearish.
-50 SMA is under the 100 & 200 SMA’s, 100 SMA is under the 200 SMA, and price is under all of them. Bearish.
-Descending channel is well intact despite that 40% spike toward the end of October. Bearish.
-Even if BTC bounces and closes on top of the .618, price congestion in the $7800 area is waiting to test it. Bearish.
-RSI in the 20’s with a little upward move that shows a bounce but it isn’t confirmed with the MFI. Bearish.
It’s worth pointing out that there isn’t very much recent market structure at the current price to act as support. Risk appears to be to the downside. Maybe to the 6k area of 2018, maybe to 5.5k of this spring. You guys can read price and see what’s next if that area is lost.
A glimmer of hope on the weekly chart…
Price sucks, RSI sucks, MFI mostly sucks…but look at the higher low it just posted.
Tough times for 100% allocated HODL’rs. Good times for traders who use stops, don’t trade against trends, and have a position in cash. The halving approaches…get your game faces on.
-Swing low from last December to swing high of June gives us $7237 for a .618 fib. BTC fell under that and hasn’t closed back above. Bearish.
-50 SMA is under the 100 & 200 SMA’s, 100 SMA is under the 200 SMA, and price is under all of them. Bearish.
-Descending channel is well intact despite that 40% spike toward the end of October. Bearish.
-Even if BTC bounces and closes on top of the .618, price congestion in the $7800 area is waiting to test it. Bearish.
-RSI in the 20’s with a little upward move that shows a bounce but it isn’t confirmed with the MFI. Bearish.
It’s worth pointing out that there isn’t very much recent market structure at the current price to act as support. Risk appears to be to the downside. Maybe to the 6k area of 2018, maybe to 5.5k of this spring. You guys can read price and see what’s next if that area is lost.
A glimmer of hope on the weekly chart…
Price sucks, RSI sucks, MFI mostly sucks…but look at the higher low it just posted.
Tough times for 100% allocated HODL’rs. Good times for traders who use stops, don’t trade against trends, and have a position in cash. The halving approaches…get your game faces on.
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