Total Market Cap Bitcoin Dominance vs XRP Dominance Analysis

28 нояб. 2020 г.

Along with the predictions for the Total Market Cap in the upcoming Bull Run, I am also very interested to see what % of Total Market Cap both BTC and XRP will own.

I know there is a lot of math on these charts (I just wanted to be transparent with my calculations).. so here are my summarized assumptions and calculations:

Assumptions:
1. XRP will peak 17 days after BTC peaks again. No proof that this will happen but it kind of makes sense. Last bull run, it seemed that a lot of people sold their Bitcoin profits and used that to buy XRP on the way up during the final pump. In addition to this, it's important to note that the Total Market Cap increased by 38.3% (227 Billion) in between the BTC/USD ATH and the Total Market Cap ATH. Similarly, the Total Market Cap increased by 8.6% (65 Billion) in between the BTC/USD ATH and the Total Market Cap ATH. I took this into consideration during my BTC and XRP 2021-22 calculations...
2. The Delta % Decrease between the 2013 and 2018 cycles will prove true for this cycle... 42% delta decrease in BTC + XRP Dominance as well as an 84% delta decrease in the XRP + BTC Dominance.
3. Note: The BTC and XRP calculations needed to be calculated separately since they both peaked at different times.

Calculation Summary:
- If Total Market Cap peaks somewhere between 5-10 Trillion and BTC captures a 46.3% Market Dominance, we could see a BTC ATH in the range of 181k - 90k

- If the 17 day theory repeats AND the Total Market Cap peaks somewhere between 5-10 Trillion AND XRP/USD captures 25% Market Dominance, we could see a XRP/USD ATH in the range of $51-$25

P.S. I had to fill in some Data for 2013-2017 from CoinMarketCap

Any and all feedback is appreciated :)