E-mini Dow Jones Futures are pullback, trend remain bullish

13 авг.

1. Current Situation:
   The futures are currently trading at 39,865, down 1,208 points or 2.94%. This indicates a significant short-term pullback.

2. Technical Levels:
   
4. The chart shows key Fibonacci retracement levels:
   
5. 0.5 retracement at 38,865
   
6. 0.618 retracement at 40,162
   
7. 1.0 extension at 41,684
   
8. 1.618 extension at 45,168
   

Trend Analysis:
The overall trend has been bullish, with prices making higher highs and higher lows.
However, the current candle shows a significant red bar, indicating strong selling pressure.

Support and Resistance:
Immediate support seems to be around the 0.5 Fibonacci level at 38,865.
The recent high around 41,684 may act as resistance on any upward moves.
Volume:
The current trading volume is 1.47M, which is significant and suggests active participation.
Seasonal Patterns:
The seasonal data at the bottom of the chart shows mixed performance for upcoming months:
September has been historically weak (-1.40% average)
October and November tend to be stronger (2.32% and 4.21% averages respectively)
Price Projections:
The chart shows two potential paths:
A bearish scenario with a further drop towards the 0.5 Fibonacci level
A bullish scenario projecting a move towards the 1.618 extension at 45,168
Recent Performance:2024 year-to-date performance has been positive, with gains in the first 7 months.

Risk Factors:The current sharp decline might signal a change in market sentiment or reaction to economic news.

Conclusion:
While the E-mini Dow Jones Futures are currently experiencing a pullback, the overall trend remains bullish. Traders should watch the 38,865 support level closely. If it holds, we might see a bounce back towards previous highs. However, if it breaks, we could see further downside. The seasonal pattern suggests potential weakness in September before a stronger Q4. As always, traders should consider broader market conditions, economic data, and risk management in their decision-making process.