US natgas prices ease 1% on forecasts for less demand this week
U.S. natural gas futures eased about 1% on Wednesday on forecasts for less demand this week than previously expected and slow growth in the amount of gas flowing to U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) export plants due to ongoing maintenance work at several facilities.
That price decline came even though daily output dropped and forecasts for the weather to remain hotter-than-normal through early August, especially in Texas.
Power demand in Texas hit a record high for a second day in a row on Tuesday and will likely break that record again on Wednesday (and next week) as homes and businesses keep air conditioners cranked up to escape a lingering heatwave, according to the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state's power grid operator.
Extreme heat boosts the amount of gas generators burn to produce power for cooling, especially in Texas, which gets most of its electricity from gas-fired plants. In 2022, about 49% of the state's power came from gas-fired plants, with most of the rest coming from wind (22%), coal (16%), nuclear (8%) and solar (4%), according to federal energy data.
Front-month gas futures 
NG1! for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 2.6 cents, or 1.0%, to settle at $2.603 per million British thermal units.
SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Data provider Refinitiv said average gas output in the U.S. Lower 48 states rose to 101.6 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in July, up from 101.0 bcfd in June. That compares with a monthly record of 101.8 bcfd in May.
On a daily basis, however, output was on track to drop by 1.8 bcfd to a preliminary one-week low of 99.9 bcfd on Wednesday due mostly to declines in North Dakota and Pennsylvania. That would be the biggest one-day drop since January. But analysts noted preliminary data is often revised by large amounts later in the day.
Meteorologists forecast the weather in the Lower 48 states would remain hotter-than-normal through at least Aug. 3.
With LNG export plants expected to return soon, Refinitiv forecast U.S. gas demand, including exports, would rise from 108.1 bcfd this week to 108.6 bcfd next week. The forecast for this week was lower than Refinitiv's outlook on Tuesday.
Gas flows to the seven big U.S. LNG export plants rose to an average of 12.8 bcfd so far in July from 11.6 bcfd in June. That, however, was still well below the monthly record of 14.0 bcfd in April due to ongoing maintenance at several facilities in Louisiana, including Cameron LNG, Cheniere Energy's 
LNG Sabine Pass and Venture Global LNG's Calcasieu.
Week ended Jul 14 Forecast | Week ended Jul 7 Actual | Year ago Jul 14 | Five-year average Jul 14 | ||
U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf): | 48 | 49 | 35 | 45 | |
U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf): | 2,978 | 2,930 | 2,396 | 2,611 | |
U.S. total storage versus 5-year average | 14.1% | 14.2% | |||
Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu) | Current Day | Prior Day | This Month Last Year | Prior Year Average 2022 | Five Year Average (2017-2021) |
Henry Hub | 2.62 | 2.63 | 7.19 | 6.54 | 2.89 |
Title Transfer Facility (TTF) (TRNLTTFMc1) | 8.44 | 8.42 | 51.76 | 40.50 | 7.49 |
Japan Korea Marker (JKM) (JKMc1) | 11.02 | 10.56 | 39.36 | 34.11 | 8.95 |
Refinitiv Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days | |||||
Two-Week Total Forecast | Current Day | Prior Day | Prior Year | 10-Year Norm | 30-Year Norm |
U.S. GFS HDDs | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
U.S. GFS CDDs | 253 | 254 | 248 | 213 | 205 |
U.S. GFS TDDs | 255 | 257 | 250 | 216 | 208 |
Refinitiv U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts | |||||
Prior Week | Current Week | Next Week | This Week Last Year | Five-Year Average For Month | |
U.S. Supply (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production | 101.4 | 101.2 | 101.5 | 97.1 | 90.5 |
U.S. Imports from Canada | 10.2 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 8.2 |
U.S. LNG Imports | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Supply | 111.6 | 111.5 | 113.8 | 106.0 | 98.8 |
U.S. Demand (bcfd) | |||||
U.S. Exports to Canada | 4.4 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.4 |
U.S. Exports to Mexico | 6.8 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 6.2 | 5.5 |
U.S. LNG Exports | 12.4 | 12.7 | 13.2 | 10.6 | 6.1 |
U.S. Commercial | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.5 |
U.S. Residential | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
U.S. Power Plant | 44.4 | 48.0 | 47.7 | 46.3 | 41.7 |
U.S. Industrial | 21.2 | 21.3 | 21.4 | 21.3 | 21.1 |
U.S. Plant Fuel | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.0 |
U.S. Pipe Distribution | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 |
U.S. Vehicle Fuel | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Total U.S. Consumption | 81.0 | 84.6 | 84.4 | 83.0 | 78.2 |
Total U.S. Demand | 104.7 | 108.1 | 108.6 | 104.0 | 92.2 |
U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam | Current Day % of Normal Forecast | Prior Day % of Normal Forecast | 2022 % of Normal Actual | 2021 % of Normal Actual | 2020 % of Normal Actual |
Apr-Sep | 83 | 83 | 107 | 81 | 103 |
Jan-Jul | 77 | 77 | 102 | 79 | 98 |
Oct-Sep | 76 | 75 | 103 | 81 | 95 |
U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA | |||||
Week ended Jul 21 | Week ended Jul 14 | Week ended Jul 7 | Week ended Jun 30 | Week ended Jun 23 | |
Wind | 6 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 9 |
Solar | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
Hydro | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 |
Other | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
Petroleum | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Natural Gas | 46 | 45 | 45 | 43 | 42 |
Coal | 19 | 19 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
Nuclear | 17 | 17 | 18 | 17 | 19 |
SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
Henry Hub (NG-W-HH-SNL) | 2.52 | 2.46 | |||
Transco Z6 New York (NG-CG-NY-SNL) | 1.89 | 1.70 | |||
PG&E Citygate (NG-CG-PGE-SNL) | 4.71 | 4.88 | |||
Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) (NG-PCN-APP-SNL) | 1.61 | 1.53 | |||
Chicago Citygate (NG-CG-CH-SNL) | 2.35 | 2.28 | |||
Algonquin Citygate (NG-CG-BS-SNL) | 1.90 | 2.02 | |||
SoCal Citygate (NG-SCL-CGT-SNL) | 5.61 | 5.89 | |||
Waha Hub (NG-WAH-WTX-SNL) | 2.23 | 2.16 | |||
AECO (NG-ASH-ALB-SNL) | 1.69 | 1.69 | |||
SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour) | |||||
Hub | Current Day | Prior Day | |||
New England (EL-PK-NPMS-SNL) | 37.75 | 42.50 | |||
PJM West (EL-PK-PJMW-SNL) | 38.75 | 41.00 | |||
Ercot North (EL-PK-ERTN-SNL) | 49.50 | 44.50 | |||
Mid C (EL-PK-MIDC-SNL) | 121.00 | 115.25 | |||
Palo Verde (EL-PK-PLVD-SNL) | 80.00 | 136.00 | |||
SP-15 (EL-PK-SP15-SNL) | 81.75 | 96.50 |