Seasonality by Scan Your Strat

3 сент. 2023 г.

Overview:
This indicator helps with seasonality on the security. Seasonal analysis searches for repeating patterns across the years. Our recommended timeframe to look for seasonality is a minimum of 5 years. The idea is to see if there are predictable movements in price that recur every calendar year.

How it works/Calculations:
It will take all the years that you choose, whether 5 or 10 or 15 years or more and will analyze the average movement by calendar year and then will detrend the results to give you a chart that goes horizontally and makes you see a clearer picture of periods of strengths or periods of weakness. It will take the ROC of each day for each year and average the results and at the end will give you a chart with line that can show uptrend or downtrend.

Potential Pitfalls:
Certain events of that year can affect the movement for that security more than a “normal” year would. In addition, there are similar price action moves that can happen across several years that have no true seasonal basis. For example, company news released coincidentally at the same time of the year over several years and can lead to show a seasonal pattern when there is not one. You can battle this by using more years like 10 or 15 years or by eliminating years from being analyze. On the other hand, using too many years (like distant past) may have little to do with today's price action and seasonal trends.

How to use:
You should not be using this indicator for entries or stop. This indicator will help you identify potential periods of strength and may help you in holding longer. Sometimes seasonal periods can start sooner or later to the chart. Very important, the indicator will work only on daily candle as the smallest timeframe.

Settings:
-Start year and end year: to put years where you want to start your analysis and where it ends. For example, you can put 2013 as a start and 2022 year end. *”Use years back” will need to be at 0 for this option to work.
-Use years back: you can put directly 10 years and will analyze 2013 to 2022. If there is a number in here like 5, will mean the last 5 years and will trump any years on the above section. "0" means is deactivated and you can use start year and end year options.
-Avoid year- there are 3 spots if you wanted to avoid certain years in a series. For example, lets say you want to analyze the last 10 years but you want to eliminate 2020 due to covid then you can put in here up to 3 different years that will not be taken into account.
-Start month and end month: it will be automatic at start 1 and end 12, but if you wanted to just see a specific timeframe you can adjust in here.

Disclaimer:
This is still an indicator that is being tested and in no way should be used alone. Currently will be in closed beta to find bugs and to work on accuracy.
The information contained in this script does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts are only for educational purposes!