Cash VIX Term Structure

21 апр. 2022 г.

This script looks the dynamics of Cash VIX Term Structure, i.e. tickers VIX9D, VIX and VIX3M which look at how the markets are pricing volatility (implied) in the short and medium term, at any given point in time. In this script we look at 2 ratios - VIX9D/ VIX , and VIX / VIX3M , when these ratios are rising it indicates market is pricing more volatility in the short term relative to the future aka term structure flattening and subsequently a ratio > 1.0 indicates inversion. We plot EMA of VIX9D/ VIX and a fast + slow EMA for VIX / VIX3M to reduce the noise associated with daily trading ranges.

Interesting observations:
VIX / VIX3M near 1.0 indicates volatility overbought and 0.8 indicates volatility oversold.
VIX9D/ VIX tends to overshoot these ranges (0.8-1.0) due to extreme complacency or panic.
EMA crossovers in the daily chart of VIX / VIX3M might be used as an additional confirmation of volatility moving in a direction.

Feel free to use this indicator and comment, if any observations.