200 Week MA Extensions (Crypto Currently Strategy)

Bitcoin 200 Week MA Extensions
The 200-week moving average has never been breached in Bitcoin's history, making it one of the most reliable indicators for identifying absolute market bottoms. This indicator plots the 200 Week MA along with percentage extensions above it to help identify potential cycle tops and key resistance levels during bull markets.
What is the 200 Week MA?
The 200-week simple moving average is the average closing price of Bitcoin over the past 200 weeks (approximately 3.8 years). It's a ultra-long-term trend indicator that:

Has never been broken to the downside in Bitcoin's entire history
Acts as the ultimate floor for Bitcoin price during bear markets
Rises steadily over time, reflecting Bitcoin's long-term growth trajectory
Moves slowly, making it a stable reference point for market cycles

Key Components:

200 Week MA - Blue Line (Base Level)

The foundation line that has historically marked absolute bottoms
Currently around $62,000 (and rising ~$500-800 per week)
Touching this level has historically represented generational buying opportunities
Last tested during the COVID crash (March 2020) and 2022 bear market


+50% Extension - Green Line (1.5x the 200 Week MA)

First major resistance zone above the base
Often acts as support during healthy bull market corrections
Historically a comfortable zone for accumulation in early bull markets


+100% Extension - Yellow Line (2.0x the 200 Week MA)

Double the 200 Week MA value
Represents a well-developed bull market
Often tested multiple times during mid-cycle consolidations
Can act as strong resistance when first approached


+150% Extension - Orange Line (2.5x the 200 Week MA)

Advanced bull market territory
Historically marks the acceleration phase of bull runs
Breaking above this level often signals euphoric market conditions approaching


+200% Extension - Red Line (3.0x the 200 Week MA)

Triple the 200 Week MA value
Extreme overextension zone
Historically near or beyond previous cycle tops
Suggests extreme caution and profit-taking considerations



Historical Context:
2020-2021 Bull Market:

March 2020: Price touched the 200 Week MA (~$5,000) - absolute bottom
Throughout 2020: Price traded between +50% and +100% extensions
Late 2020 - Early 2021: Price broke above +100%, accelerated to +150%
April 2021 & November 2021: Price reached +200% extension area, marking local/cycle tops

2022 Bear Market:

Price fell from +200% extension back toward the 200 Week MA
June 2022: Price came within 10% of the 200 Week MA ($18,000)
Bounce from near the 200 Week MA marked the bear market bottom

2023-2024 Recovery:

Price recovered from near 200 Week MA back through the extension levels
Each extension level acted as resistance, then support as bull market developed
Current position relative to extensions helps gauge cycle maturity

How to Use This Indicator:
For Long-Term Accumulation:

At 200 Week MA: Maximum conviction buying zone - historically has never failed
+0% to +50%: Excellent accumulation zone, low risk relative to reward
+50% to +100%: Good accumulation zone during bull market dips
Above +100%: Consider reducing accumulation, focus on holding or taking profits

For Profit Taking:

Approaching +100%: Consider taking initial profits (10-20% of position)
+100% to +150%: Take incremental profits as price advances
+150% to +200%: Increase profit-taking pace significantly
Above +200%: Maximum caution - historically unsustainable levels

For Risk Management:

Distance from 200 Week MA indicates market risk level
Further above = higher risk, more extended, closer to top
Closer to = lower risk, better value, closer to bottom
Use extensions as profit-taking targets in bull markets
Use extensions as re-entry targets during corrections

For Cycle Timing:

Bear Market: Price converges toward 200 Week MA
Early Bull: Price in +0% to +50% range, building base
Mid Bull: Price in +50% to +100% range, healthy growth
Late Bull: Price in +100% to +150% range, acceleration
Euphoric Top: Price at +150% to +200%+, extreme extension

Key Insights:
The 200 Week MA as Ultimate Support:

Bitcoin has touched or approached this level during every major bear market
It rises consistently (~$30,000 per year currently), creating a rising floor
Breaking below would be unprecedented and signal a fundamental market structure change
Provides enormous psychological and technical support

Extension Levels as Resistance/Support:

Bull markets often stall at each extension level before breaking through
Once broken, extensions often flip from resistance to support
Rejections from higher extensions can signal local or cycle tops
Corrections back to lower extensions offer re-entry opportunities

Diminishing Returns:

Each cycle's top has formed at progressively lower extension multiples
2013: ~10x the then-200WMA
2017: ~5x the then-200WMA
2021: ~3x the then-200WMA
Suggests future tops may not reach +200% extension (market maturation)

Best Practices:
Do:

Use the 200 Week MA as your ultimate risk-off level for long-term holdings
Scale into positions as price approaches the 200 Week MA
Take profits incrementally as price rises through extensions
View corrections back to lower extensions as opportunities
Combine with other on-chain metrics (MVRV, Realized Price) for confirmation

Don't:

Expect the 200 Week MA to provide perfect entry timing (you might be early)
Assume price will reach +200% extension every cycle
Sell all holdings at first extension level during bull markets
Ignore price action and volume when making decisions
Panic if price approaches the 200 Week MA (historically the best time to buy)

Why This Indicator Works:
The 200 Week MA represents nearly 4 years of price data, which:

Encompasses approximately one full Bitcoin halving cycle
Smooths out all short and medium-term volatility
Reflects Bitcoin's true long-term adoption and growth trend
Provides a slow-moving, stable reference that doesn't whipsaw

The extension levels work because:

They create objective profit-taking targets based on historical overextension
They account for the rising base (200 Week MA) over time
They've proven reliable across multiple market cycles
They help remove emotion from buy/sell decisions

Technical Notes:

Calculations performed on weekly timeframe data for consistency
The indicator displays correctly on any chart timeframe (Daily, 4H, etc.)
Uses lookahead_on to prevent repainting and show consistent historical values
All extension levels update automatically as the 200 Week MA rises
Best viewed on logarithmic scale for full historical perspective

Important Reminders:

Past performance does not guarantee future results - while the 200 Week MA has never been breached, future market conditions could differ
Market maturation - as Bitcoin matures, cycle dynamics may change
Black swan events - unexpected macro events could temporarily break historical patterns
Not financial advice - this is an educational tool, always do your own research

Recommended Usage:
Best Timeframes: Daily, Weekly, Monthly charts
Pair With: MVRV Ratio, Realized Price, Stock-to-Flow, Fear & Greed Index
Update Frequency: Weekly (the base 200 Week MA only changes weekly)
Chart Type: Logarithmic scale recommended for full historical view

Strategy Example:

Buy aggressively when price is within 20% of 200 Week MA
Hold and accumulate between 200WMA and +50% extension
Begin scaling out profits at +100% extension (20% of position)
Scale out more at +150% extension (40% of position)
Significant profit-taking at +200% extension (remaining position)
Wait for next cycle and repeat


This indicator provides a simple, objective, and historically reliable framework for navigating Bitcoin's market cycles. By respecting the 200 Week MA as the ultimate floor and using the extensions as profit-taking guides, investors can remove emotion and develop disciplined strategies for long-term success.