Weighted US Liquidity ROC Indicator with FED Rates

18 авг.

The Weighted US Liquidity ROC Indicator is a technical indicator that measures the Rate of Change (ROC) of a weighted liquidity index. This index aggregates multiple monetary and liquidity measures to provide a comprehensive view of liquidity in the economy. The ROC of the liquidity index indicates the relative change in this index over a specified period, helping to identify trend changes and market movements.

1. Liquidity Components:

The indicator incorporates various monetary and liquidity measures, including M1, M2, the monetary base, total reserves of depository institutions, money market funds, commercial paper, and repurchase agreements (repos). Each of these components is assigned a weight that reflects its relative importance to overall liquidity.

2. ROC Calculation:

The Rate of Change (ROC) of the weighted liquidity index is calculated by finding the difference between the current value of the index and its value from a previous period (ROC period), then dividing this difference by the value from the previous period. This gives the percentage increase or decrease in the index.

3. Visualization:

The ROC value is plotted as a histogram, with positive and negative changes indicated by different colors. The Federal Funds Rate is also plotted separately to show the impact of central bank policy on liquidity.

Discussion of the Relationship Between Liquidity and Stock Market Returns

The relationship between liquidity and stock market returns has been extensively studied in financial economics. Here are some key insights supported by scientific research:

Liquidity and Stock Returns:

Liquidity Premium Theory: One of the primary theories is the liquidity premium theory, which suggests that assets with higher liquidity typically offer lower returns because investors are willing to accept lower yields for more liquid assets. Conversely, assets with lower liquidity may offer higher returns to compensate for the increased risk associated with their illiquidity (Amihud & Mendelson, 1986).

Empirical Evidence: Research by Fama and French (1992) has shown that liquidity is an important factor in explaining stock returns. Their studies suggest that stocks with lower liquidity tend to have higher expected returns, aligning with the liquidity premium theory.

Market Impact of Liquidity Changes:

Liquidity Shocks: Changes in liquidity can impact stock returns significantly. For example, an increase in liquidity is often associated with higher stock prices, as it reduces the cost of trading and enhances market efficiency (Chordia, Roll, & Subrahmanyam, 2000). Conversely, a liquidity shock, such as a sudden decrease in market liquidity, can lead to higher volatility and lower stock prices.

Financial Crises: During financial crises, liquidity tends to dry up, leading to sharp declines in stock market returns. For instance, studies on the 2008 financial crisis illustrate how a reduction in market liquidity exacerbated the decline in stock prices (Brunnermeier & Pedersen, 2009).

Central Bank Policies and Liquidity:

Monetary Policy Impact: Central bank policies, such as changes in the Federal Funds Rate, directly influence market liquidity. Lower interest rates generally increase liquidity by making borrowing cheaper, which can lead to higher stock market returns. On the other hand, higher rates can reduce liquidity and negatively impact stock prices (Bernanke & Gertler, 1999).

Policy Expectations: The anticipation of changes in monetary policy can also affect stock market returns. For example, expectations of rate cuts can lead to a rise in stock prices even before the actual policy change occurs (Kuttner, 2001).

Key References:

Amihud, Y., & Mendelson, H. (1986). "Asset Pricing and the Bid-Ask Spread." Journal of Financial Economics, 17(2), 223-249.

Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns." Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.

Chordia, T., Roll, R., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2000). "Market Liquidity and Trading Activity." Journal of Finance, 55(2), 265-289.

Brunnermeier, M. K., & Pedersen, L. H. (2009). "Market Liquidity and Funding Liquidity." Review of Financial Studies, 22(6), 2201-2238.

Bernanke, B. S., & Gertler, M. (1999). "Monetary Policy and Asset Prices." NBER Working Paper No. 7559.

Kuttner, K. N. (2001). "Monetary Policy Surprises and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Fed Funds Futures Market." Journal of Monetary Economics, 47(3), 523-544.

These studies collectively highlight how liquidity influences stock market returns and how changes in liquidity conditions, influenced by monetary policy and other factors, can significantly impact stock prices and market stability.