Money Flow Divergence

26 авг.

The Money Flow Divergence indicator is designed to help traders identify periods when there is a significant divergence between the growth of the U.S. M2 money supply and the S&P 500 index (SPX).
This divergence can provide insights into potential market turning points, making it a valuable tool for long-term investors and traders looking to capitalize on macroeconomic trends.

How It Works:
Data Sources:
S&P 500 Index (SPX) and U.S. M2 Money Supply.

Calculating Growth Rates:
SPX Growth: The script calculates the percentage growth of the S&P 500 index by comparing the current closing price with the previous period's closing price.
M2 Growth: Similarly, it calculates the percentage growth of the U.S. M2 money supply by comparing the current value with the previous period's value.

Growth Gap/Delta:
Growth Gap: The core of the indicator is the "growth gap" or "delta," which is the difference between the M2 money supply growth and the SPX growth. This gap indicates whether liquidity in the economy (represented by M2) is outpacing or lagging behind the performance of the stock market.

Interpretation:
Positive Gap (Green Bars): When the M2 growth outpaces SPX growth, the gap is positive, indicating that there is more liquidity in the system than what is being reflected in the stock market. This scenario often signals potential upward momentum in the market, making it a good time to consider buying.

Negative Gap (Red Bars): When the SPX growth outpaces M2 growth, the gap is negative, suggesting that the market may be overextended relative to the available liquidity. This can be a warning sign of potential market corrections or downturns.

Visualization:
The indicator plots the growth gap as a histogram with bars colored based on the gap value:
Green Bars: Indicate a positive gap where M2 growth is higher than SPX growth.
Red Bars: Indicate a negative gap where SPX growth is higher than M2 growth.
The bars are thickened for better visibility, and a horizontal line at zero is plotted to help users easily distinguish between positive and negative gaps.

How To Use It:
Time Frame Selection: Users can select the desired time frame (e.g., monthly, weekly) for the data. This flexibility allows traders to analyze the indicator over different periods, depending on their investment horizon.

Monthly time frames seem to work best.

Interpreting the Indicator:
Bullish Signals: Look for sustained periods of positive growth gaps (green bars), which may indicate a favorable environment for buying or holding long positions.
Bearish Signals: Be cautious during periods of negative growth gaps (red bars), which could signal overvaluation in the market or potential pullbacks.

Enjoy and let me know if you have any questions.