Murder Algo Stats: last portion of Indices closing hour (S&P)

15 апр. 2023 г.

Stats regarding the 'murder algo' (last 10mins of the closing hour). Works on all sub-1hr timeframes. Best used on 5min, 10min 15min timeframe. Ideal use on 10min timeframe.
Can be applied to other user input sessions also

What i'm calling the 'Murder Algo' is the tendency of dynamic lower time frame price action in the final 10minutes of the S&P closing hour (or any of the three major US indices: S&P, Nasdaq, Dow).
If there are un-met liquidity targets (i.e. clean highs or lows) as we come into the last portion of the closing hour, price has a tendency to stretch up or down to reach these targets, swiftly.
These statisitics are somewhat experimental/research; trying to quantify this tendency. Please comment below if you think of some additions / modifications that may prove useful.

//Purpose:
-To get statistics of the tendency to 'reach' of the final bar (10minute bar in the above) of the closing hour in Indices (3pm - 4pm NY time).
-Specifically to see how often price reaches for HH or LL in the final bar of the closing hour (most of the time); and to see how far it reaches one way when it does (Mean, median, mode).

//Notes:
-Two sets of historical stats; one is based on the 'solo reach' of the last bar; the other is based on the reach of the last bar from the average price of the preceding bars of the session (purple line in the above)
-Works on any timeframe below hourly. Ideally used on 10min timeframe, but may be interesting to plot on 15min or 5min timeframe also.
-Should also work on custom user-defined session; though this indicator was explicly designed to investigate the 'murder algo': that final rush and/or whipsaw tendency of price in the last few minutes of Regular trading on Indices.
-For S&P, best used on SPX, which gives the longest history of all the S&P variants due to only showing Regular trading hours bars (500 days of history on 10min timeframe, for premium users)
-For most stats, i've rounded to ES1! mintick (i.e. rounded to nearest quarter dollar) =>> This allows more meaningful values for 'mode' statistical measure.
-I trade S&P; but this 'muder algo' phenomenon also obviously presents in Nasdaq and Dow.

//User Inputs:
-Session time input (defaults to closing hour 3pm - 4pm NY time)
-Average method (for the average of all the input session EXCEPT the final bar)
-Toggle on/off Average line.
-other formatting options: text color, table position, line color/style/size.

Example usage with annotations on SPX 500 chart 15m timeframe; using closing hour (3pm-4pm NY time) as our session: