ARVEX Scenario Engine

ARVEX Scenario Engine is a scenario-based market context tool that builds a locked “probability corridor” and dual target zones using recent swing behavior and volatility.

It is designed for market analysis and context. It does not provide financial advice and should not be used as a standalone decision system.

⸻

What you see on the chart

• Probability Corridor (LOCK): a forward corridor that stays fixed until price touches the top/bottom boundary
• Inner/Outer corridor bands: median vs. extreme swing expectations (volatility-aware)
• Dual Target Zones:
• Z1 = conservative target zone
• Z2 = aggressive target zone
• Dynamic themes & gradients: Neo / Ice / Sunset styling
• Touch markers (optional): TOP / BOT labels when a boundary is confirmed
• Info label: quick explanation + corridor state

⸻

How it works (high level)

• Detects validated swing pivots (with an ATR-based noise filter)
• Learns typical move size + duration from recent swings (median + upper percentile)
• Projects a forward corridor whose width adapts to volatility and learned swing stats
• Optional EMA trend bias can make the corridor asymmetric (more room in trend direction)
• The corridor is locked until:
• price touches TOP/BOT (wick or close, configurable), or
• the corridor expires after N bars
• On touch/expiry, the engine anchors a new reference point and rebuilds the scenario

⸻

Settings (quick guide)

• Learning Swings: more = smoother / slower adaptation
• Min Swing Filter (ATR x): higher = fewer pivots / less noise
• Expire After Bars: how long the scenario stays active without a touch
• Touch Mode: wick = more sensitive, close = stricter confirmation
• Targets: Z1/Z2 widths and multipliers control conservative vs aggressive zones

⸻

Alerts (optional)

If enabled, alerts can notify when:
• the corridor TOP is touched (new analysis anchor)
• the corridor BOTTOM is touched (new analysis anchor)

⸻

Notes / Disclaimer

This tool visualizes scenario frameworks based on past swing behavior. Outcomes are probabilistic and vary by symbol/timeframe. Always use your own confirmation and risk controls.