BTC - Cycle Integrity Index (CII)

BTC - Cycle Integrity Index (CII) | RM

Are we following a calendar or a capital flow? Is the Halving still the heartbeat of Bitcoin, or has the institutional "Engine" taken over?
The most polarized debate in the digital asset space today centers on a single question: Is the 4-year Halving Cycle dead? While some market participants wait for a pre-ordained calendar countdown, the reality of 2026 suggests that visual guesswork is no longer sufficient. As institutional gravity takes hold, we cannot rely on the simple "Clock" of the past. Instead, we must audit the Integrity of the present.

The Cycle Integrity Index (CII) was engineered to move beyond simple price action and provide a clinical answer to the market's biggest mystery: "Is this trend supported by structural substance, or is it merely speculative foam?" By aggregating eight diverse Pillars into a single 0-100% score, this model uses Gaussian Distributions and Sigmoid Normalization to distinguish between professional accumulation and retail-driven chaos. We aren't guessing where we are in a cycle; we are measuring the internal health of the asset's engine in real-time.

Why these 8 Pillars?
The CII does not rely on a single indicator because the "New Era" of Bitcoin is multi-dimensional. To capture the full picture, I selected eight specific pillars that cover the three layers of market truth:
• The Capital Layer: Global Liquidity (M2) and ETF Flows (Wall Street Absorption).
• The Network Layer: Mining Difficulty and Security Backbone expansion.
• The Sentiment Layer: Long-Term Holder conviction, Valuation Heat (MVRV), and Corporate Adoption (MSTR). While alternatives like the Pi Cycle or RSI exist, they are often "one-dimensional." The CII is a synthesis—a modular engine where every part validates the others.

How the Calculation Works
The CII is a sophisticated model for Bitcoin. It aggregates 8 diverse pillars into a single 0-100% score in the following way:
• Mathematical Normalization: We don't just use raw prices. We use Gaussian Distributions to find "Institutional DNA" in drawdowns and Sigmoid (S-Curve) functions to score volatility and valuation.
• Dynamic Weighting: The index is modular. If a data source (like a specific on-chain metric) is toggled off, the engine automatically redistributes the weight among the active sensors so the final integrity score is always balanced to 100%.
• Multi-Source Integration: The script pulls from Global Liquidity (M2), ETF flows, Corporate Treasury premiums (MSTR), and Network Difficulty to create a truly "Full-Stack" view of the asset.

The 8 Pillars of Integrity

Pillar 1: Drawdown DNA The "Identity Crisis" Filter
• Concept: Audits the depth of corrections to distinguish between "Institutional Floors" and "Retail Panics."
• Logic: Historically, retail crashes reached -80%, while institutions view -20% to -25% as primary value entries.
• Implementation: Uses a Gaussian (Normal) Distribution centered at -25%. Scores of 10/10 are awarded for holding institutional targets; scores decay as drawdowns accelerate toward legacy "crash" levels.
Basis: DNA Drawdown

Pillar 2: Volatility Regime The "Smoothness" Audit
• Concept: Measures the "vibration" of the trend. High-integrity moves are characterized by "smooth" price action.
• Logic: Erratic volatility signals speculative bubbles; consistent "volatility clusters" indicate professional trend-following.
• Implementation: Calculates a Z-Score of the 14-day ATR against a 100-day benchmark. This is passed through a Sigmoid function to penalize "chaotic" price shocks while rewarding stability.
Basis: RVPM

Pillar 3: Liquidity Sync (Global M2) The Macro Heartbeat
• Concept: Audits whether price growth is fueled by monetary expansion or internal speculative leverage.
• Logic: True cycle integrity requires a positive correlation between Central Bank balance sheets and price action.
• Implementation: Aggregates a custom Global Liquidity Proxy (Fed, RRP, TGA, PBoC, ECB, BoJ). It measures the Pearson Correlation between BTC and M2 with a standardized 80-day transmission lag.
Basis: Liquisync

Pillar 4: ETF Absorption (Wall Street Entry) The "Cost Basis" Defense
• Concept: Tracks the aggregate institutional cost-basis since the January 2024 Spot ETF launch.
• Logic: Integrity is high when the "Wall Street Floor" is defended; it fails when the aggregate position is underwater.
• Implementation: A Cumulative VWAP engine tracking the "Big 3" (IBIT, FBTC, BITB). Scoring decays based on the percentage distance the price drifts below this institutional average entry.
Basis: Institutional Cost Corridor
Note: Turning this to OFF will significantly expand the timeframe of the indicator on the chart (otherwise it will just start in 2024)

Pillar 5: LTH Dormancy (Conviction) The HODL Floor Audit
• Concept: Monitors the conviction of Long-Term Holders (LTH) to identify supply-side constraints.
• Logic: Sustainable cycles require stable or increasing 1Y+ dormant supply; rapid "thawing" signals distribution.
• Implementation: Uses Min-Max Normalization on the Active 1Y Supply over a 252-day window. A score of 10/10 indicates peak annual holding conviction.
Basis: RHODL Proxy & VDD Multiple

Pillar 6: Valuation Intensity The MVRV Heat Map
• Concept: Measures market "overheat" by comparing Market Value to Realized Value.
• Logic: High integrity trends rise steadily; vertical spikes in MVRV indicate "speculative foam" and bubble risk.
• Implementation: Performs a Relative Rank Analysis of the MVRV Ratio over a 730-day window, passed through a high-steepness Sigmoid curve to identify extreme valuation anomalies.

Pillar 7: Miner Stress The Security Backbone
• Concept: Tracks Mining Difficulty to ensure network infrastructure is expanding alongside price.
• Logic: Difficulty expansion signals health; drops in difficulty (Miner Stress) signal capitulation and sell-side pressure.
• Implementation: Monitors the 30-day Rate of Change (ROC) of Global Mining Difficulty. Maintains a 10/10 score during expansion; decays rapidly during network contraction.

Pillar 8: Corporate Adoption The MSTR NAV Proxy
• Concept: Audits the MicroStrategy (MSTR) premium as a barometer for institutional demand.
• Logic: A high premium indicates a willingness to pay a "convenience fee" for BTC exposure; a collapsing premium signals waning appetite.
• Implementation: Calculates the Adjusted Enterprise Value (Market Cap + Debt - Cash) relative to the Net Asset Value (NAV) of its BTC holdings.
Note1: Debt and share parameters are user-adjustable to maintain accuracy as corporate balance sheets evolve.
Note2: I just included this because I was curious about the mNAV calculation I saw in other scripts, where the printed value often does not match exactly the propagated value from the MSTR page itself. Hence, for my live calculation, we calculate the Adjusted Enterprise Value to find the "Market NAV" (mNAV). Unlike simpler scripts that only look at Market Cap vs. Bitcoin holdings, our engine accounts for the Capital Structure. We explicitly factor in the corporate debt (approx. $8.24B long-term + $7.95B convertible notes) and subtract the cash reserves (approx. $2.18B) to find the true cost Wall Street is paying for the underlying Bitcoin. Since this will ran "old" very quickly, I recommend to update in the code by yourself from time to time, or just de-select this parameter.

Interpretation Guide
• Score 100% (The Perfect Storm): This represents a state of "Maximum Integrity." All 8 pillars are in perfect institutional alignment—liquidity is surging, conviction is at yearly highs, and price action is perfectly smooth. This is the hallmark of a healthy, structural parabolic run.
• 75% - 100% (High Integrity): Robust trend. Price is supported by structural demand and macro tailwinds.
• 35% - 75% (Equilibrium): Transition zone. The market is digesting gains or waiting for a new liquidity pulse.
• 0% - 35% (Fragile): Speculative foam. Structural support has failed.
• Score 0% (The Ghost Trend): Absolute structural failure. All pillars (liquidity, miners, LTH, ETFs) have broken down. Note: Due to the robust nature of the Bitcoin network, the index naturally floors around 20-30% during deep bear markets, as specific pillars (like Miner Security) rarely drop to zero.

To provide a complete experience, I have included the Cycle Triad—a visualization layer consisting of the Halving, Ideal Peak, and Ideal Low. It is important to understand the role of this feature:
• Benchmark Only (Not Calculated): The Triad is based purely on historical evidence from previous Bitcoin epochs. While the Halving is fixed anyway, the "Ideal Peak" or "Ideal Low" are not calculated or computed by the 8 pillars. These are user-adjustable temporal anchors drawn on the chart to provide a static map of the "Legacy 4-Year Cycle."
• The Temporal Audit: The power of the CII lies in comparing the Engine (the 8 Pillars) against the Clock (the Triad). By overlaying historical time-windows on top of our integrity math, we can see if the "New Era" is currently ahead of, behind, or perfectly in sync with the past.
• The "Peak Divergence" Logic: Based on the specific models selected for this ECU—specifically Volatility Decay and Valuation Heat—traders will notice that a cycle peak often coincides with a low integrity score (Red Zone). While the index measures structural health, a low score is a byproduct of a market that has become "too hot to handle."
• Regime Detection: Although the primary goal is to audit the "New Era," the CII is highly effective at detecting overheated regimes. When the score drops toward the 25–35% range, the structural floor is giving way to speculative foam—making it a dual-purpose tool for both cycle analysis and risk management.

Dashboard Calibration & Settings
Cycle Triad Calibration
• Ideal Peak/Trough Window: Defines the historical "Average Days" from a Halving to the cycle top and bottom. This sets the vertical anchors for the Halving, Peak, and Low labels.
• Show Cycle Triad: A master toggle to enable or disable the temporal lines and labels on your dashboard.
The CII Master ECU is fully modular. You can toggle individual pillars ON/OFF to focus on specific market dimensions, and calibrate the sensitivity of each sensor to match your strategic bias.
• P1: Drawdown DNA Lookback (Weeks): Defines the window for the "Rolling High." Inst. Target (%): The specific percentage drawdown you define as "Institutional Support" (e.g., -25%).
• P2: Volatility Regime Benchmark (Days): The historical window used to define "Normal" vs. "Abnormal" volatility.
• P3: Liquidity Sync Corr. Window (Bars): The lookback for the Pearson Correlation calculation. Transmission Lag (Bars): The delay (standard 80 days) for Central Bank M2 to hit price.
• P4: ETF Absorption FBTC Ticker: The data source for the ETF volume audit (Default: CBOE:FBTC).
• P5: LTH Dormancy LTH Source: The ticker for 1Y+ Active Supply (Default: GLASSNODE:BTC_ACTIVE1Y). Norm. Window: The lookback (252 days) used to rank current conviction.
• P6: Valuation Intensity MVRV Source: The ticker for the MVRV Ratio (Default: INTOTHEBLOCK:BTC_MVRV). Relative Window: The lookback (730 days) to calculate the valuation rank.
• P7: Miner Stress Mining Diff: The data source for Global Mining Difficulty (Default: QUANDL:BCHAIN/DIFF).
• P8: Corporate Adoption Shares (M) & BTC (K): The balance sheet parameters for MicroStrategy (MSTR). Update these as the company executes new purchases to maintain mNAV accuracy.

Operational Usage This index is best used on the Daily (D) (recommended - description for inputs optimized for this time-window) or Weekly (W) timeframes. While the code is optimized to fetch daily data regardless of your chart setting, the structural "Integrity" of a cycle is a macro phenomenon and should be viewed with a medium-to-long-term lens.

The Verdict: Is the 4-Year Cycle Still Alive?
Based on the data provided by the CII Master ECU, the answer remains a nuanced "Work in Progress." The evidence presents a fascinating conflict between legacy patterns and the new institutional regime:
• The Case for the Cycle: Historically, a local "Peak" in price corresponds with a "Local Low" in our integrity indicator (Red Zone). We observed this exact phenomenon in October 2025. When viewed through the lens of the "Ideal Peak" anchor, this alignment suggests that the 4-year temporal rhythm is still exerts a massive influence on market behavior.
• The Case for the New Era: While the timing of the October 2025 peak followed the legacy script, the intensity did not. Previous cycle tops produced far more aggressive and persistent "Red Zone" clusters. The relative brevity of the integrity breakdown suggests that the "Institutional Era" provides a much higher floor than the retail-driven bubbles of 2017 and 2021.
• The Institutional Floor: Our data shows that while "Tops" still resemble the 4-year cycle, the "Lows" now reflect a regime of constant institutional absorption. This suggests that the brutal 80% drawdowns of the past may be replaced by the "Institutional DNA" of Pillar 1.

Final Outlook: As we move through 2026, the ultimate test lies in the Q3/Q4 window. While classical theory demands a "Cycle Low" during this period, the CII will be our primary auditor. We cannot definitively say the cycle is dead, but we can say it has evolved. We will not know if the 4-year low will manifest until the model either flags a total structural breakdown or confirms that the institutional "Floor" has permanently shifted the rhythm of the asset.

Tags: Bitcoin, Institutional, Macro, On-chain, Liquidity, MSTR, ETF, Cycle

Note to Moderators: This script is a "Master Index" that aggregates several quantitative models I have previously published on this platform (including DNA Drawdown, RVPM, and Liquisync). I am the original author of the logic and source code referenced in the "Basis" sections of the description.