Stage Analysis

3 дек.

Stage Analysis was created by Stan Weinstein, and helps traders to identify where a stock/etf/index is in its Price Cycle.

The Price Cycle was introduced by Richard D. Wyckoff in the early 1900s, where he noted that stocks repeatedly go through a cycle of Accumulation, Markup, Distribution and Markdown. Stan Weinstein’s Stage Analysis method modified the Wyckoff Price Cycle, and converted it into four stages, which are:

Stage 1 = Accumulation
Stage 2 = Markup
Stage 3 = Distribution
Stage 4 = Markdown



Stage Analysis indicator:

Stan Weinstein had different definitions for the four stages – Stage 1: The Basing Area, Stage 2: The Advancing Phase, Stage 3: The Top Area, Stage 4: The Declining Phase. But for the purposes of the Stage Analysis indicator, you’ll note that we’ve combined Stage 1 and Stage 3, as they share numerous technical characteristics, and in our opinion, still require some discretionary judgement to determine whether they are showing accumulation or distribution characteristics.

So, we believe that neutral better describes them from a purely technical aspect, as being in Stage 3 doesn’t necessarily mean the top area, as it can still make a Stage 2 continuation breakout to new highs, instead of breaking down into Stage 4. Just as a Stage 1 basing pattern, can still make a further Stage 4 continuation breakdown, and won’t necessarily breakout into a Stage 2 advance. Hence, we display both Stage 1 and Stage 3 as Neutral, to help remove the perceived bias associated with Stage 3 and Stage 1.

So, in the indicator the Stages are displayed as three different colored backgrounds:

Blue = Stage 1 / Stage 3: Neutral
Green = Stage 2: Uptrend
Red = Stage 4: Downtrend

Stage 1 / Stage 3: Neutral (Blue background)



Stage 1 shows signs of a potential accumulation base structure developing and begins with a close above the 30-week simple moving average, when the stock is still below its (usually declining) 40-week MA as well, following a Stage 4 downtrend, and then remains in Stage 1 until either it breaks out into a Stage 2 uptrend, or returns to a Stage 4 downtrend once more. Although, there are often multiple failed breakout and breakdown attempts, which change the Stage briefly to Stage 2 or Stage 4, before reverting back into Stage 1, as the base broadens out.

The initial move into Stage 1 can occur in numerous different ways. Sometimes following a powerful rebound rally from the 52-week lows to above the 30-week MA, and at other times, after a basing period first, while the stock is still in Stage 4, and then only briefly moving into Stage 1, before breaking out into a new Stage 2 uptrend. But with all ways, there is a notable Change of Character compared to the previous Stage 4 downtrend, as supply and demand moves towards equilibrium, and the stock starts to build a more significant sideways range/base structure.

Stage 3 is the exact opposite of Stage 1, and instead of accumulation. Signs of distribution begin to appear when a stock is getting later in a Stage 2 Uptrend, with the stock first closing below its 30-week MA, and then starting to build a more significant sideways range/base structure, than the minor structures that formed when it was still trending higher in Stage 2.

It begins with a change of behaviour (i.e. a bigger correction than seen during the rest of Stage 2, that takes it below its 30-week, but still above its (usually rising) 40-week MA, and then that often broadens out into a sideways structure, with multiple swings above and below the 30-week MA, with tests of the highs and lows of the developing structure. Which can see it briefly revert to Stage 2, with failed breakout attempts at the highs (Upthrusts), or Stage 4, with failed breakdown attempts at the lows of the structure (Shakeouts or Springs).

So, Stage 1 and Stage 3 are both more neutral periods between the Stage 2 (Uptrend) and Stage 4 (Downtrend).


Stage 2: Uptrend (Green Background)



Stage 2 is the most important Stage for traders looking to buy stocks with the Stage Analysis method, and begins with a breakout from the prior Stage 1 base, but can also occur more suddenly from a V-bottom pattern or earnings gaps. In which case, it will move directly from a Stage 4 downtrend into a Stage 2 uptrend.

The move to Stage 2 requires certain technical aspects to be present, including a close above its near-term range (we use a 13-week range based on weekly closes), as well as its 200-day MA (40-week MA), and for our proprietary Stage Analysis Technical Attributes (SATA)* score to be at a least a SATA 6 of 10. And so, the change from Stage 1 to Stage 2 will often occur while the stock is still within a “broader” base structure, as the quarterly range is continually shifting, and doesn’t consider technical levels prior to that period.

The breakout point as Stage 2 begins is the Stage Analysis methods favoured entry zone for investors, as it marks the change from the Stage 1 basing period into the more dynamic Stage 2 uptrend (chart changes to green)

A secondary investor entry point can often form soon after the Stage 2 breakout, as the momentum fades from the initial rally, and it pulls back towards the breakout level, before finding support and swinging back higher into the advancing phase. So, the Stage Analysis indicator can be used to determine this secondary entry point by dropping down to an intraday timeframe – such as the 30-minute chart, and waiting for a Stage 2 breakout attempt on that much shorter timescale.

The Trader method entry points also form during the Stage 2 advance, and occur at the Stage 2 continuation breakout points of the more minor re-accumulation bases that form as the Stage 2 advance progresses higher.


Stage 4: Downtrend (Red Background)



Stage 4 is the opposite of Stage 2, and marks the beginning of a potential downtrend, as the distributional forces from Stage 3 gain control, and the stock attempts to move lower.

Stage 4 is the most important Stage for traders looking to short stocks with the Stage Analysis method, and as with Stage 2, it can also begin more suddenly following a sudden sharp decline or an earnings gap lower etc, that knifes through the key MAs and quarterly range.

The move to Stage 4 also requires certain technical aspects to be present, including a close below its near-term range (we use a 13-week range based on weekly closes), as well as its 200-day MA (40-week MA), and for our proprietary Stage Analysis Technical Attributes (SATA) score to be a maximum of a SATA 3 of 10, as if the SATA score is higher than 3, then it will still be considered as Stage 3 (blue) until that drops to a SATA 3 or lower.

The initial short entry point in Stage 4 occurs at the breakdown from Stage 3 to Stage 4 (chart changes to red), and as with Stage 2, a secondary entry point can form, but in Stage 4 it is on a potential pullback towards the breakdown level that then reverses lower once more. So, the Stage Analysis indicator can be used to determine this secondary entry point by dropping down to an intraday timeframe – such as the 30-minute chart, and waiting for a Stage 4 breakdown attempt on that much shorter timescale.

The Trader method short entry points also form during the Stage 4 decline, and occur at the Stage 4 continuation breakdown points of the more minor re-distribution bases that form as the Stage 4 decline progresses lower.


Recommended Chart Setup:
Weekly
Logarithmic scale

Recommended Indicators:
10 – Simple Moving Average
30 – Simple Moving Average
40 – Simple Moving Average (optional)
Mansfield Relative Strength (Original Version) (optional)
Stage Analysis Technical Attributes (SATA) (optional)

The Stages are intended to be used on the Weekly timeframe with a Logarithmic scale primarily, with a 10-week MA, 30-week MA and 40-week MA. But Stage Analysis can be used across multiple timeframes. So, for shorter-term swing traders, the 195-min (2bars/day), 2-hour, 1-hour, 30-min charts etc are often used with the same relative chart settings. But note that the lower the timeframe, the more noise that you’ll get, so you should always refer back to the weekly Stage to trade with the major trend.


Customise the Stage Analysis indicator
Edit colours of the Stages
Show/Hide Stages


Reference:

*Stage Analysis Technical Attributes (SATA)

The Stage Analysis Technical Attributes (SATA) scoring system is our proprietary tool which measures 10 of the key components that we look for in the Stage Analysis method to help to determine the Stage, and is made up of the following components:

• Breakouts and Breakdowns
  
• Price / Moving Averages
  
• Relative Strength versus the S&P 500
  
• Momentum
  
• Volume
  
• Overhead Resistance
  

Combining the SATA score with the price elements described in the Stages descriptions above, provides a Stage Analysis indicator that is faithful to Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis method, and truly unique from other more simplistic automated versions of the Stages that you might find elsewhere.

Disclaimer: This indicator is for informational and educational purposes only. We accept no liability for any loss which may arise from the use of this indicator. All trading decisions are your own, and should be researched thoroughly, with appropriate risk management in place.

We are not affiliated with Stan Weinstein, and this is our own unique interpretation of the Stage Analysis method, based on our long experience with it.