Leverage Strategy and a few words on risk/opportunityHello traders,
I started this script as a joke for someone... finally appears it could be used for educational content
Let's talk about leverage and margin call
Margin Call
A margin call is the broker's demand that an investor deposit additional money or securities so that the account is brought up to the minimum value, known as the maintenance margin.
A margin call usually means that one or more of the securities held in the margin account has decreased in value below a certain point.
Leverage
A leverage is a system which allows the trader to open positions much larger than his own capital. ... “Leverage” usually refers to the ratio between the position value and the investment needed,
Strat
The strategy simulates long/short positions on a 4h high/low breakout based on the chart candle close.
The panel below shows the strategy equity curve. Activating the margin call option will show when the account would be margin called giving the settings
Casino
I'm not doing any financial recommendation here.
I made this strategy so that people include more risk management metrics into their strategy.
From the code, we see it's fairly easy to calculate a leveraged position size and a margin call flag - when that flag is hit, the system stops trading.
I simplified things to the extreme here but my point is that the leverage is a double-edge sword gift.
Assuming we always take the same position sizing, increasing the leverage speed up how fast a margin could be ..... called. (bad joke? feel free to tell me). Not saying it will, saying it introduces more risk by design.
Then one could say "I'll just turn off that stupid margin call option". And that's when someone starts backtesting with unrealistic market conditions.
Finally...
When I backtest I always assume the worst in every scenario possible (because I'm French), I always try to minimize the risk first (also because I'm French), keeping as close from 0 as possible (French again)
Then I add the "opportunity" component, looking to catch the maximum of opportunity while keeping the risk low.
It's like a Rubix cube puzzle - decreasing the risk is one side of the equation but whenever I try to catch more opportunity... my risks increases.
Then I update my risk... and now the opportunity decreases... (#wut #wen #simple)
Completely removing the risk from a trading strategy isn't something I wouldn't dare doing.
Trading involves risk. Being obsessed by decreasing the risk is what I do BEST :)
Dave
BTC-D
Heiken Ashi Triangles at the Top and Bottom of ScreenHeiken Ashi Triangles at the Top and Bottom of Screen
The image below shows the comparison to actual Heiken Ashi candles
(Though changing from candles to Heiken Ashi tends to smooth the triangles a little)
EVWBB Strategy [QuantNomad]It's my new strategy using EVWMA (Elastic Volume Weighted Moving Average).
Now I created a Bollinger Bands strategy where basis level is EVWMA.
It looks pretty interesting but you have to be careful with the entries/exits on the same bar, I'm using stop orders, so on big moves it happens pretty often.
In the next version, I will try to eliminate these issues.
Entry for this strategy happens when price crossover upper for long and lower for short. I exit both short and long on basis level.
Directional Movement Index + Average Directional IndexPersonal DMI and ADX script
ADX color change from positive vs negative momentum
DMI Color fill based on DMI+/- positive momentum
No fill color during lack of momentum
Bitcoin Power Law CorridorOpen-source live tracker of Harold Burger's Bitcoin "Power Law Corridor".
Added optional chart fill and labels to show the percentage delta to the regression center-line, support and resistance.
Blockchain Artificial Neural NetworksI found a very high correlation in a research-based Artificial Neural Networks.(ANN)
Trained only on daily bars with blockchain data and Bitcoin closing price.
NOTE: It does not repaint strictly during the weekly time frame. (TF = 1W)
Use only for Bitcoin .
Blockchain data can be repainted in the daily time zone according to the description time.
Alarms are available.
And you can also paint bar colors from the menu by region.
After making reminders, let's share the details of this interesting research:
INPUTS :
1. Average Block Size
2. Api Blockchain Size
3. Miners Revenue
4. Hash Rate
5. Bitcoin Cost Per Transaction
6. Bitcoin USD Exchange Trade Volume
7. Bitcoin Total Number of Transactions
OUTPUTS :
1. One day next price close (Historical)
TRAINING DETAILS :
Learning cycles: 1096436
AutoSave cycles: 100
Grid :
Input columns: 7
Output columns: 1
Excluded columns: 0
Training example rows: 446
Validating example rows: 0
Querying example rows: 0
Excluded example rows: 0
Duplicated example rows: 0
Network :
Input nodes connected: 7
Hidden layer 1 nodes: 5
Hidden layer 2 nodes: 0
Hidden layer 3 nodes: 0
Output nodes: 1
Controls :
Learning rate: 0.1000
Momentum: 0.8000
Target error: 0.0100
Training error: 0.010571
The average training error is really low, almost worth the target.
Without using technical analysis data, we established Artificial Neural Networks with blockchain data.
Interesting!
EVWMA VWAP Cross Strategy [QuantNomad]Continue to experiement with VWAP and EVWMA.
It seems that just simple crosses between VWAP and EVWMA can be pretty good signals. VWAP is a bit choppy so you can use VWAP smoothing input to smoth it a bit.
Here are few other strategies based on EVWMA:
EVWMA VWAP MACD Strategy
QuantNomad - EVWMA MACD Strategy
Bitcoin Real VolumeBitcoin’s Real Volume
An accurate read on the change in Bitcoin’s volume profile over time.
Based on 2019 reports by Bitwise and Alameda Research.
Please see the script code notes for assumptions and details on data selection.
Follow me for more information on this script.
QuantNomad - Significant Pivot Reversal Strategy AlertsAlerts for "Significant Pivot Reversal Strategy":
As one of the ways to filter out insignificant levels I decided to check that pivot point is not above/below neighbors, but check that it's above/below at least by a certain amount.
I use ATR, so in params, you can set length of ATR and also ATR multiplier. The new level will be calculated only if PP will be above/below neighbors by atr * atr_mult.
It seems this approach might help in some cases.
QuantNomad - EVWMA MACD StrategyPretty simple EVWMA (Elastic Volume Weighted Moving Average ) MACD Strategy.
EVWMA is a quite interesting moving average where the period of the MA is defined from the volume itself.
It incorporates volume information in a natural and logical way. The EVWMA can be looked at as an approximation to the average price paid per share.
As a volume period, you can use sum of the last x bars volumes.
Here are other EVWMA indicators/strategies:
EVWMA indicator:
EVWMA Cross strategy:
Simple BTC trading strategy based on yesterday's trading rangeOnce market opens, the strategy calculates the price to send a stop buy order
The order is calculated as the sum of yesterday's range multiplied by a special number and today's open price
System has no stops yet
System closes the position on session close
The performance is quite good
Feel free to use it and trade it
Good luck and good trading
QuantNomad - Significant Pivot Reversal StrategyI'm working on improving the Pivot Points Reversal Strategy.
As one of the ways to filter out insignificant levels I decided to check that pivot point is not above/below neighbors, but check that it's above/below at least by a certain amount.
I use ATR, so in params, you can set length of ATR and also ATR multiplier. The new level will be calculated only if PP will be above/below neighbors by atr * atr_mult.
It seems this approach might help in some cases.
Here I have PivotPoint + RSI strategy:
QuantNomad - EVWMA Cross StrategyPretty simple EVWMA (Elastic Volume Weighted Moving Average) Cross Strategy. Long on bullish cross, Short on Bearish Crosss.
EVWMA is a quite interesting moving average where period of the MA is defined from volume itself.
It incorporates volume information in a natural and logical way. The eVWMA can be looked at as an approximation to the average price paid per share.
As a volume period you can use sum of the last x bars volumes.
Here is EVWMA as an indicator:
Golden Ratio Fibonacci Multipliers Top Detector [UO]Fibonacci levels that show the critical top and bottom levels. There is no way to miss the top and bottom. And a top detector.
Also the most important SMA lines (SMA 50, 200), EMA21. Those are the most frequently used lines by traders.
This indicator is based on the work of www.tradingview.com
His work set me thinking. Could I also see the bottom using Fibonacci numbers? Yes, of course.
My favorite timeframes with this indicator are 6H, 1D, 3D.
Intensively used for BTC and BNB. And useful for any other coin.
Hash RibbonsBuying during Miner Capitulation yields wonderful returns.
The best buy signals occur on Hash Rate "recovery", and when price momentum is also positive.
Historically, this strategy has yielded average returns to cycle peak of >5000%, with max Drawdown of -15%.
Follow me to learn more about this indicator.
Bitmex BTC Backwardation / ContangoThis indicator calculates difference between price of Bitmex's XBTUSD, and Bitmex's two nearest futures.
If the difference is negative, then it is backwardation.
If the difference is positive, then it is contango.
This script will be updated every about 3 months, when the nearest Bitmex future will be expired.
This is an updated script of , with better description.
BTC Volume absolute (fiat vs Tether vs futures)BTC volume split by fiat, Tether and futures in USD
fiat = COINBASE + BITFLYER + BITSTAMP + KRAKEN
Tether = BITFINEX + BINANCE + HUOBI + HITBTC
futures = BITMEX + BYBIT
QuantNomad - Bitcoin NVT/NVTSIn this script I included 2 quite interesting indicators for Bitcoin:
* NVT (Network Value to Transactions Ratio)
* NVTS (NVT Signal)
Both indicators are based on Bitcoin Network Value (Market Cap) and 24h transaction volume.
For both these values I'm using Quandl datasets from Blockchainc.com:
market_cap: QUANDL:BCHAIN/MKTCP
transac_vol: QUANDL:BCHAIN/ETRVU
Calculation for both indicators are pretty simple:
NVT = median(market_cap / transac_vol, 14 bars)
NVTS = market_cap / sma(transac_vol, 90 bars)
NVT and NVTS are cryptocurrency's answers to P/E ratio. They can help you to understand if bitcoin is under/overvalued.
When NVT or NVTS is relatively high it can be a pretty good point to short bitcoin, if it's low it good time to buy bitcoin.
NVT Ratio - was created by Willy Woo
NVT Signal - was created by Dimitry Kalichkin
Because of different sources of transaction volume data, these indicators can differ in values from originals, but magnitude should be the same.
This is a pretty simple example where you can select only static overbought/oversold levels and when indicator will be above/below it you will see in changing in color.
I have many more things in my head how these indicators can be developed further and what strategies can be derived from them, but as is they can be a pretty good base for you. Will share my advanced findings later.
REAL STRATEGY : Dow_Factor_MFI/RSI_DVOG_StrategyI'm actually one of those who think it's more important to extract clues from indicators than strategy, but I wanted to test the data about the probability and dow factor I've shared for a long time.
Usually, Bitcoin is used as an eye stain for strategy success, since the graph has increased significantly from the beginning.
To prevent this, I used a commission and in the last lines of document I shared Bitmex's Bitcoin and Ethereum 1W test results.
I don't think there's a factor to repaint. ( Warn me if u see or observe )
I considered Bitcoin because I found working with liquid parities much more realistic.
Ethereum and Bitmex have been featured as a spot and may soon find a place at the CME , so I've evaluated the Ethereum .
But since the Ethereum Bitmex was also spot new, I deleted results that were less than 10 closed trades.
Since the Dow Theory also looks at the harmony in the indices, just try it in the Cryptocurrency market.
Use as indicator in other markets. Support with channels, trend lines with big periods and other supportive indicators.
And my personal suggestion : Use this script and indicator TF : 4H and above.
Specifications :
Commission. ( % 0.125 )
Switchable Methods ( Relative Strength Index / Money Flow Index )
Alarms. (Buy / Sell )
Position closure when horizontal market rates weighs.
Progressive gradual buy/sell alarms.
Clean code layout that will not cause repaint. (Caution : source = close )
Switchable barcolor option (I / 0 )
*****Test results :*****
drive.google.com
Summary:
It was a realistic test.
It has achieved great success in some markets, but as I mentioned earlier, use it only to gain insight into the price movements of cryptos.
Use as indicator in other markets.
This code is open source under the MIT license. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository : github.com
Stay tuned ! Noldo.
Strategy based on the principles of Price ActionIt is considered the percentage of candles with low and high closure for a certain period. Then, a moving average is built from these values. When the moving average of the ratio of tall candles to low candles is greater than the ratio of low candles to high, then long (that is, when the green line crosses the red). And vice versa - a condition for short. It also works on crypto with other settings. Idea for improvement: you can make partial exit by taking, at certain profit levels, the chart will be more stable. Result with a commission of 0.004% You can create an optimizer, and use this strategy on any liquid asset. (Sorry for google translator)
Open Interest Exponential Ease of MovementModified Ease of Movement :
* Open Interests used on Futures instead of Volume (Includes Bitcoin)
* Exponential Moving Average used instead of Simple Moving Average
* Division Number cancelled. (Division Number gives wrong signals inside strong trends.)
NOTE : This code is open source under the MIT License. If you have any improvements or corrections to suggest, please send me a pull request via the github repository github.com
Stay tuned. Best regards !
BTC Volume Fiat vs Tether vs FuturesFutures = BYBIT+ BITMEX
Fiat = KRAKEN + BITSTAMP + BITFLYER + COINBASE
Tether = HITBTC + HUOBI + BINANCE + BITFINEX
Spot = Fiat + Tether
Tether vs Fiat = 100 * Tether / (Tether + Fiat)
Spot vs Futures = 100 * Spot / (Spot + Futures)
Lancelot vstop intraday trending strategyDear all,
Free strategy again.
I found using 3 volatility stop with different settings could be very helpful when trading an intraday trending market.
With the ATR setting or 5, 10, 15, we can weed out many false break.
Vstop setting is OHLC4.
On the other hand, this strategy also utilize Renko as part of the strategy, so you could say this strategy is mainly an intraday break out trend following strategy.
Works well on BTCUSD XBTUSD, as well as other major liquid alt Pairs.
And lastly,
Save Hong Kong, the revolution of our times.
