EMP Probabilistic [CHE]Part 1 — For Traders (Practical Overview, no formulas)
What this tool does
EMP Probabilistic \ turns raw price action into a clean, probability-aware map. It builds two adaptive bands around the session open of a higher timeframe you choose (called the S-timeframe) and highlights a robust median threshold. At a glance you know:
Where price has recently tended to stay,
Whether current momentum sits above or below the median, and
A live Long vs. Short probability based on recent outcomes.
Why it improves decisions
Objective context in any regime: The nonparametric band comes straight from recent market behavior, without assuming a particular distribution.
Volatility-aware risk lens: The parametric band adapts to current volatility, helping you judge stretch and room for continuation or snap-back.
No lookahead: All stats update only after an S-bar is finished. That means the panel reflects information you truly had at that time.
How to read the chart
Orange band = empirical, distribution-free range derived from recent session returns (nonparametric).
Teal band = volatility-scaled range around the session open (parametric).
Median dots: green when close is above the median threshold, red when below.
Info panel: shows the active S-timeframe, window sizes, live coverage for both bands, the internal width parameter and volatility estimate, plus a one-line summary.
Probability label: “Long XX% • Short YY%” — a simple read on the recent balance of up vs. down S-bars.
How to use it (quick start)
1. Choose S-timeframe with Auto, Multiplier, or Manual. “Auto” scales your chart TF up to a sensible higher step.
2. Set alpha to control how tight the inner band should be. A typical value gives you a comfortable center zone without cutting off healthy trends.
3. Trade the context:
Trend-following: Prefer longs when price holds above the median; prefer shorts when it stays below.
Mean-reversion: Fade moves near the outer edges during ranges; look for reversion back toward the median.
Breakout filter: Require closes that push and hold beyond the volatility band for momentum plays; avoid noise when price chops inside the middle of the orange band.
Risk management made practical
Size positions relative to the teal band width to keep risk consistent across instruments and regimes.
For stops, many traders set them just beyond the opposite orange bound or use a fraction of the teal band.
Watch the panel’s coverage readouts and Brier score; when they deteriorate, the market may be shifting — reduce size or demand stronger confirmation.
Suggested presets
Scalping (Crypto/FX): Auto S-TF, alpha around a fifth, calibration window near two hundred, RS volatility, metrics window near two hundred.
Intraday Futures: Multiplier 3–5× your chart TF; similar alpha and window sizes; RS volatility is a solid default.
Swing/Equities: S-TF at least daily; test both RS and GK volatility modes; keep windows on the larger side for stability.
What makes it different
Two complementary lenses: a distribution-free read of recent behavior and a volatility-scaled read for risk and stretch.
Self-calibrating width: the parametric band quietly nudges its internal multiplier so actual coverage tracks your target.
Clean UX: grouped inputs, tooltips, an info panel that tells you what’s going on, and a simple median bias you can act on.
Repainting & timing
The logic updates only when the S-bar closes. On lower-timeframe charts you’ll see intrabar flips of the dot color — that’s just live price moving around. For strict signals, confirm on S-bar close.
Friendly note (not financial advice)
Use this as a context engine. It won’t predict the future, but it will keep you on the right side of probability and volatility more often, which is exactly where consistency starts.
Part 2 — Under the Hood (Conceptual, no formulas)
Data and timeframe design
The script works on a higher S-timeframe you select. It fetches the open, high, low, close, and time of that S-bar. Internally, it only updates its rolling windows after an S-bar has finished. It then pushes the previous S-bar’s statistics into its arrays. That design removes lookahead and keeps the metrics out-of-sample relative to the current S-bar.
Nonparametric band (distribution-free)
The orange band comes from the empirical distribution of recent session-level close-minus-open moves. The script keeps a rolling window, sorts a safe copy, and reads three key points: a lower bound, a median, and an upper bound. Because it’s based purely on observed outcomes, it adapts naturally to skew, fat tails, and regime shifts without assuming any particular shape. The orange range shows “where price has tended to live” lately on the chosen S-timeframe.
Parametric band (volatility-scaled)
The teal band models log-space variability around the session open using one of two well-known OHLC volatility estimators: Rogers–Satchell or Garman–Klass. Each estimator contributes a per-bar variance figure; the script averages these across the rolling window to form a current volatility scale. It then builds a symmetric band around the session open in price space. This gives you a volatility-aware notion of stretch that complements the distribution-free orange band.
Self-calibration of band width
The teal band has an internal width multiplier. After each completed S-bar the script checks whether the realized move stayed inside that band. If the band was too tight, the multiplier is nudged upward; if it was too loose, it’s eased downward. A simple learning rate governs how quickly it adapts. Over time this keeps the realized inside-coverage close to the target implied by your alpha setting, without you having to hand-tune anything.
Long/Short probability and calibration quality
The Long vs. Short probability is a transparent statistic: it’s just the recent fraction of up sessions in the rolling window. It is not a complex model — and that’s the point. You get an honest, intuitive read on directional tendency.
To monitor how well this simple probability lines up with reality, the script tracks a Brier-style score over a separate metrics window. Lower is better: it means your recent probability read has matched outcomes more closely.
Coverage tracking for both bands
The panel reports coverage for the orange band (nonparametric) and the teal band (parametric). These are rolling averages of how often recent S-bar moves landed inside each band. Watching these two numbers tells you whether market behavior still aligns with the recent distribution and with the current volatility model.
Why it doesn’t repaint
Because the arrays update only when an S-bar closes and only push the previous bar’s stats, the panel and metrics reflect information you had at the time. Intrabar visuals can change while a bar is forming — that’s expected — but the decision framework itself is anchored to completed S-bars.
Performance and practicality
The heaviest step is sorting a copy of the window for the nonparametric band. With typical window sizes this stays responsive on TradingView. The volatility estimators and rolling averages are lightweight. Inputs are grouped with clear tooltips so you can tune without hunting.
Limitations and good practice
In thin or gappy markets the bands can jump; consider a larger window or a higher S-timeframe.
During violent regime shifts, shorten the window and increase the learning rate slightly so the teal band catches up faster — but don’t overdo it, or you’ll chase noise.
The Long/Short probability is intentionally simple; it’s a context indicator, not a standalone signal factory. Combine it with structure, volume, or your execution rules.
Takeaway
Under the hood, the script blends empirical behavior and volatility scaling, then self-calibrates so the teal band’s real-world coverage stays near your target. You get clarity, consistency, and a dashboard that tells you when its own assumptions are holding up — exactly what you need to trade with confidence.
Disclaimer
The content provided, including all code and materials, is strictly for educational and informational purposes only. It is not intended as, and should not be interpreted as, financial advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument, or an offer of any financial product or service. All strategies, tools, and examples discussed are provided for illustrative purposes to demonstrate coding techniques and the functionality of Pine Script within a trading context.
Any results from strategies or tools provided are hypothetical, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve high risk, including the potential loss of principal, and may not be suitable for all individuals. Before making any trading decisions, please consult with a qualified financial professional to understand the risks involved.
By using this script, you acknowledge and agree that any trading decisions are made solely at your discretion and risk.
Best regards and happy trading
Chervolino
Циклический анализ
Asian Stock Open (00:00 UTC Daily)Simple TSE daily open indicator, 500 line history, to help prepare for potential weekly open volatility from Asia trading
15m Continuation — prev → new (v6, styled)This indicator gives you backtested statistics on how often reversals vs continuations occur on 15 minute candles on any pair you want to trade. This is great for 15m binary markets like on Polymarket.
Price Level Highlighter [ldlwtrades]This indicator is a minimalist and highly effective tool designed for traders who incorporate institutional concepts into their analysis. It automates the identification of key psychological price levels and adds a unique, dynamic layer of information to help you focus on the most relevant area of the market. Inspired by core principles of market structure and liquidity, it serves as a powerful visual guide for anticipating potential support and resistance.
The core idea is simple: specific price points, particularly those ending in round numbers or common increments, often act as magnets or barriers for price. While many indicators simply plot static lines, this tool goes further by intelligently highlighting the single most significant level in real-time. This dynamic feature allows you to quickly pinpoint where the market is currently engaged, offering a clear reference point for your trading decisions. It reduces chart clutter and enhances your focus on the immediate price action.
Features
Customizable Price Range: Easily define a specific Start Price and End Price to focus the indicator on the most relevant area of your chart, preventing unnecessary clutter.
Adjustable Increment: Change the interval of the lines to suit your trading style, from high-frequency increments (e.g., 10 points) for scalping to wider intervals (e.g., 50 or 100 points) for swing trading.
Intelligent Highlighting: A key feature that automatically identifies and highlights the single horizontal line closest to the current market price with a distinct color and thickness. This gives you an immediate visual cue for the most relevant price level.
Highly Customizabile: Adjust the line color, style, and width for both the main lines and the highlighted line to fit your personal chart aesthetic.
Usage
Apply the indicator to your chart.
In the settings, input your desired price range (Start Price and End Price) to match the market you are trading.
Set the Price Increment to your preferred density.
Monitor the chart for the highlighted line. This is your active price level and a key area of interest.
Combine this tool with other confirmation signals (e.g., order blocks, fair value gaps, liquidity pools) to build higher-probability trade setups.
Best Practices
Pairing: This tool is effective across all markets, including stocks, forex, indices, and crypto. It is particularly useful for volatile markets where price moves rapidly between psychological levels.
Mindful Analysis: Use the highlighted level as a reference point for your analysis, not as a standalone signal. A break above or below this level can signify a shift in market control.
Backtesting: Always backtest the indicator on your preferred market and timeframe to understand how it performs under different conditions.
Trend + Squeeze with Fast Flexible Transition ESGood for ES.
Trend and Squeeze with Fast Flexible Transition
Good for ES.
Breakout ORB + HTF EMA + ATR Targets (America/Denver)This is a perfect simple chart for those trading Crypto pairs between the London and US market overlays.
Moving Averages with Alerts: 9, 21, 51, 100, 144, 200---
This indicator plots six configurable moving averages (MA) with options for EMA, SMA, RCI, HMA, and Pivô Boss types. It highlights key crossover points, especially monitoring the 9-period MA for crosses with others. Users can enable alerts for these crossovers, as well as set custom alerts between any two selected MAs. Additionally, the indicator marks the important crossovers of the 51 and 200 MAs on the chart with an “X”. This helps traders identify trend changes and potential entry or exit points efficiently.
---
1H FVG Zones Only (5m & 1h)new uses trend anaylosis. takes 15 min chart and breaks into 1hr chart fvg gaps
eksOr - Charm + Vanna Window (Monthly OPEX)What This Does
This indicator highlights the monthly “Charm + Vanna window” around standard monthly options expiration (the 3rd Friday, i.e., monthly OPEX). It’s a time-based overlay that shades either:
Pre-OPEX: from the first calendar day of the month through the day before OPEX, or
Post-OPEX: from OPEX (3rd Friday) through month-end.
Use it to quickly see periods when index/stock flows are often influenced by charm (delta change from time decay) and vanna (delta change from IV moves), which can impact intramonth behavior.
How It Works
Automatically computes the third Friday each month (monthly OPEX) in your chosen timezone.
Lets you nudge the default window with Start/End calendar-day offsets (±10) to match your playbook.
Optionally draws vertical dotted lines and S/E labels on the bars where the window starts/ends.
Shows a compact table (top-right) with the current mode and the Start/End dates of the active month.
Triggers alerts on the exact bars where the window STARTS and ENDS.
Inputs
Window Mode: Pre-OPEX (start → OPEX-1) or Post-OPEX (OPEX → month end)
Timezone: Select from common exchanges/regions
Start/End Offsets: Shift boundaries by calendar days (e.g., start +2, end −1)
Style: Toggle shading, transparency, color, and start/end lines/labels
Why it’s useful
Many traders track the pre-OPEX build-up and post-OPEX reset for potential flow-driven behavior.
This tool doesn’t predict direction; it frames time so you can align other signals (price, breadth, vol, dealer positioning, etc.) within a consistent monthly structure.
Notes & limitations
This is not a signal or guarantee of charm/vanna effects—just a calendar window commonly associated with them.
OPEX logic uses the standard 3rd Friday (monthly equity/index options). It does not account for special exchange holidays or instrument-specific settlement quirks.
For best results, combine with your own vol/positioning dashboards (IV, skew, gamma exposure, open interest changes, etc.).
Tips
Use Pre-OPEX mode to visualize potential decay/roll dynamics into OPEX.
Use Post-OPEX mode to frame potential position resets into month-end.
Adjust offsets to match how your market/instrument tends to behave (e.g., start earlier if flows show up sooner).
ASX Historical Price Projection [360 Days Auto]The ASX Price Projection indicator is a forecasting tool that projects future price movement based on historical price action and user-defined parameters. Inspired by the cyclical nature of markets, this tool helps traders visualize how price could behave in the future — not with certainty, but as a modeled possibility based on past behavior patterns.
What It Does:
This tool replicates the price action from a chosen historical period and projects it into the future, optionally applying a drift factor (growth or contraction). This projection is visualized directly on the chart, helping traders anticipate potential future price paths based on recognizable past behavior.
How It Works:
The indicator automatically uses the most recent 360 bars of historical data as the projection template. This is fixed and not user-selectable.
The selected price segment is replicated and extended into the future to simulate a possible price path.
A Drift Factor (Growth Multiplier) can be applied to simulate bullish (positive) or bearish (negative) price drift.
An Area Width parameter defines how wide the projection zone appears around the forecast line, helping to visualize uncertainty or price range tolerance.
The projected path and its surrounding band are plotted forward from the current bar.
Why It’s Unique:
This script offers a simple yet powerful way to model potential future price action based on automatic historical pattern detection:
No manual selection required — the last 360 bars are always used.
The Drift Factor allows scenario testing for growth or decline.
Area Width gives a realistic band around the projected path.
Designed for visual modeling and hypothetical exploration — not predictive accuracy.
How to Use:
Load the indicator on any chart.
The system automatically pulls the last 360 bars to generate the projection.
Adjust the Drift Factor to simulate optimistic or pessimistic market scenarios.
Set the Area Width to control the visual range around the projected line.
Use the forecast to explore how price might evolve under similar conditions.
Дни недели и торговые сесииIndicator for visual analysis by trading sessions and days.
Индикатор для наглядного анализа по торговым сесиям и дням.
Prima de Riesgo High Yield + Eventos HistóricosPrima de risgo de los bonos basura. Muetra los periodos de recesión económica en las bolsas.
Alerta de toque de la 200-Week SMACuando el precio toca la MMS de 200 semanas es una posible compra.
Waves of Wealth Pair Trading RatioThis versatile indicator dynamically plots the ratio between two user-selected instruments, helping traders visualize relative performance and detect potential mean-reversion or trend continuation opportunities.
Features include:
User inputs for selecting any two instrument symbols for comparison.
Adjustable moving average period to track the average ratio over time.
Customizable standard deviation multiplier to define statistical bands for overbought and oversold conditions.
Visual display of the ratio line alongside upper and lower bands for clear trading signals.
Ideal for pair traders and market analysts seeking a flexible tool to monitor inter-asset relationships and exploit deviations from historical norms.
Simply set your preferred symbols and parameters to tailor the indicator to your trading style and assets of interest.
How to Use the Custom Pair Trading Ratio Indicator
Select symbols: Use the indicator inputs to set any two instruments you want to compare—stocks, commodities, ETFs, or indices. No coding needed, just type or select from the dropdown.
Adjust parameters: Customize the moving average length to suit your trading timeframe and style. The standard deviation multiplier lets you control sensitivity—higher values mean wider bands, capturing only larger deviations.
Interpret the chart:
The ratio line shows relative strength between the two instruments.
The middle line represents the average ratio (mean).
The upper and lower bands indicate statistical extremes where price action is usually overextended.
Trading signals:
Look to enter pair trades when the ratio moves outside the bands—expecting a return to the mean.
Use the bands and mean to set stop-loss and profit targets.
Combine with other analysis or fundamental insight for best results.
Price Persistence ScreenerPrice Persistence Screener
Pine Script v6 | Inspired by @pradeepbonde on X
This indicator, inspired by the insights of @pradeepbonde , is designed to identify stocks with high price persistence—stocks that consistently close higher than the previous day's close over various lookback periods. As described by Pradeep Bonde, stocks with high persistence are strong candidates for trading pullbacks or consolidations, as they often resume their upward trend due to aggressive buying and low selling pressure. This tool helps traders screen for such stocks and visualize their persistence across multiple timeframes.
Features:
Measures price persistence by counting bars where the closing price exceeds the previous bar’s close for fixed periods: 499, 252, 126, 60, 40, 20, 15, 10, and 5 bars.
Includes a customizable lookback period (1 to 499 bars) for flexible analysis.
Allows users to set a custom persistence threshold (0% to 100%) to highlight strong bullish trends.
How It Works:
For each lookback period, the indicator calculates how many times the closing price is higher than the previous bar’s close.
A higher count indicates stronger bullish persistence, signaling stocks with sustained upward momentum.
Usage:
This screener is aimed to be used on pine screener to see data in columns. Add this indicator to you favorites and in pine screener scan on your watchlist of up to 1000 stocks
Adjust the custom lookback period and threshold via input settings.
Sort columns to compare persistence across timeframes and identify stocks with high persistence for swing trading or long-term holding.
Settings:
Custom Lookback Period (Bars): Set the number of bars for the custom persistence calculation (default: 100).
Custom Persistence Threshold (%): Define the percentage threshold for highlighting high persistence in the custom period (default: 70%).
Credits:
This indicator is based on the price persistence concept shared by @pradeepbonde
in his YouTube video (www.youtube.com). He explains that stocks with high persistence—those consistently closing higher day after day—are strong candidates for trading pullbacks, as they tend to resume their upward trend. This screener automates and visualizes that concept, making it easier for traders to identify such stocks.
Note:
Ensure sufficient historical data is available for accurate calculations, especially for longer periods like 499 bars. if stock is less than 499 bars.
High persistence stocks may eventually lose momentum, signaling potential reversals or shorting opportunities, as noted by @pradeepbonde
.
Use this indicator as part of a broader trading strategy to screen strong trends with custom lookback scan, combining it with other technical or fundamental analysis.
Fed Funds Rate-of-ChangeFed Funds Rate-of-Change
What it does:
This indicator pulls the Effective Federal Funds Rate (FRED:FEDFUNDS, monthly) and measures how quickly it’s changing over a user-defined lookback. It offers stabilized change metrics that avoid the “near-zero blow-up” you see with naive % ROC. The plot turns red only when the signal is below the lower threshold and heading down (i.e., value < –threshold and slope < 0).
This indicator is meant to be useful in monitoring fast cuts on the part of the FED - a signal that has preceded recession or market pullbacks in times prior.
Change modes: Percentage, log and delta.
Percent ROC (ε floor): 100 * (now - prev) / max(prev, ε)
Log change (ε): 100 * (ln(now + ε) - ln(prev + ε))
Delta (bps): (now - prev) * 100 (basis points; avoids percentage math)
Tip: For “least drama,” use Delta (bps). For relative change without explosions near zero, use Log change (ε).
Key inputs:
Lookback (months): ROC window in calendar months (because source is monthly).
Change Metric: one of the three options above.
ε (percentage points): small constant (e.g., 0.25 pp) used by Percent ROC (ε) and Log change (ε) to stabilize near-zero values.
EMA Smoothing length: light smoothing of the computed series.
Clip |value| at: optional hard cap to tame outliers (0 = off).
Threshold % / Threshold bps: lower/upper threshold band; unit adapts to the selected metric.
Plot as histogram: optional histogram view.
Coloring / signal logic
Red: value is below the lower threshold (–threshold) and the series is falling on the current bar.
How to use:
Add to any chart (timeframe doesn’t matter; data is monthly under the hood).
Pick a Change Metric and set Lookback (e.g., 3–6 months).
Choose a reasonable threshold:
Percent/Log: try 10–20%
Delta (bps): try 50–100 bps
Optionally smooth (EMA 3–6) and/or clip extreme spikes.
Interpretation
Sustained red often marks periods of accelerating downside in the Fed Funds change metric (e.g., policy easing momentum when using bps).
Neutral (gray) provides context without implying direction bias.
Notes & limitations
Source is monthly FRED series; values update on monthly closes and are stable (no intrabar repainting of the monthly series).
Threshold units switch automatically with the metric (%, %, or bps).
Smoothing/clip are convenience tools; adjust conservatively to avoid masking important shifts.
Horrible Pine ScriptA script with a bug in setting the background color. Specifically written for the QQQ. Regardless of the parameter, the color is always red. Three test values are output.
Nifty Options Ladder (static ATM)This Indicator Shows CE, PE of three near by Strike Price of the ATM you Select
Zaman Bazlı Slope & Delta RSI Stratejisi (HA & Source Seçimli)5 ayrı zaman diliminde çalışan rsi ortalamaları ile hesap yaparak sinyal üreten bir strateji
Profit Filter RSI+MACD//@version=5
indicator("Profit Filter RSI+MACD", overlay=true)
// Trend filter
ema200 = ta.ema(close, 200)
// RSI
rsi = ta.rsi(close, 14)
// MACD
macd = ta.ema(close,12) - ta.ema(close,26)
signal = ta.ema(macd,9)
// Long signal
longCond = close > ema200 and rsi < 30 and ta.crossover(macd, signal)
// Short signal
shortCond = close < ema200 and rsi > 70 and ta.crossunder(macd, signal)
// Plot signals
plotshape(longCond, title="Long Entry", location=location.belowbar,
color=color.green, style=shape.labelup, text="LONG")
plotshape(shortCond, title="Short Entry", location=location.abovebar,
color=color.red, style=shape.labeldown, text="SHORT")
// Plot EMA
plot(ema200, "EMA 200", color=color.orange)
Custom Linear Regression Candles with Real-Time PriceHii this is great indicator to build by chatgpt.
How to use------------
1. It is based on the linear regression formula which gives you accurate market conditions.
2. You can do this with a RSI indicator so you can know overbought and oversell label.
3.If you want to get good accuracy then you can use chart type Heikin Ashi.
Input--------------
1. You can take linear regression length on different timeframes, in my backtest it was
5 to 15 min----30 and 1hour to 4hour---20 and Day---10 you can keep it.
2. You can pinpoint the highs and lows of the linear regression line.
--Please use it and give your feedback.
