4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis - Detailed User Guide
OVERVIEW
This indicator is a data-driven probability framework for NQ Futures traders that predicts High-of-Day (HOD) and Low-of-Day (LOD) placement based on statistical analysis of 3,136+ trading days (2013-2025). Unlike traditional indicators that rely on technical signals, this tool uses checkpoint-based state analysis with zero forward-looking bias to provide real-time probabilities of whether the daily range is complete.
⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All probabilities, patterns, and statistics were derived from a 10+ year historical dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results.
CORE CONCEPT: CHECKPOINT METHODOLOGY
What is a Checkpoint?
A checkpoint occurs when a 4-hour candle closes. At this moment, the indicator "locks" the current market state and calculates probabilities for the remainder of the trading day. The key innovation is that state never changes after locking - probabilities remain constant throughout the session until the next checkpoint.
The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST):
6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open
10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session
2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London
6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open
10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning
2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon (3 hours only)
Five Checkpoints:
10PM Checkpoint - After 6PM closes
2AM Checkpoint - After 10PM closes
6AM Checkpoint - After 2AM closes
10AM Checkpoint - After 6AM closes (most critical)
2PM Checkpoint - After 10AM closes (highest conviction fade signals)
HOW IT WORKS: THE THREE-FACTOR STATE SYSTEM
At each checkpoint, the indicator evaluates three critical factors to determine probability:
1. ELIMINATIONS (Quantity)
An "elimination" occurs when a candle trades beyond a previous candle's high or low, effectively removing that candle from contention for HOD/LOD.
Example at 10AM Checkpoint:
6PM high = 18,000
10PM high = 18,050 (eliminates 6PM high)
2AM high = 18,100 (eliminates 10PM high)
6AM high = 18,075 (does NOT eliminate 2AM high)
Result: 2 eliminations
The number of eliminations indicates trend strength:
0 eliminations = Range-bound, high probability extremes already set
1-2 eliminations = Moderate trend
3-4 eliminations = Strong trend day, range likely to extend
2. STRUCTURE (Pattern Type)
The indicator distinguishes between two elimination patterns:
Sequential: Eliminations occur in order (6pm → 10pm → 2am → 6am → 10am)
Indicates smooth, consistent trend
Example: 10pm eliminates 6pm, then 2am eliminates 10pm (sequential)
Skip: Eliminations skip candles
Indicates choppy/reversal behavior
Example: 2am eliminates 6pm but NOT 10pm (skip pattern)
Why it matters: Skip patterns show 2X probability differences compared to sequential patterns. At 10AM checkpoint with 2 eliminations, skip pattern shows 64% participation rate vs 36% for sequential pattern with previous survived.
3. PREVIOUS CANDLE STATUS
Did the immediately prior candle get eliminated?
Eliminated: Previous candle's high/low was taken out
Indicates relentless trend
Higher probability of continuation
Survived: Previous candle's high/low still intact
Indicates trend pause
Higher probability of mean reversion or range completion
Critical insight: High and low are tracked separately. At 2AM checkpoint, 10PM might have eliminated 6PM high (relentless uptrend) but NOT eliminated 6PM low (low survived). This creates different probabilities for HOD vs LOD.
VISUAL ELEMENTS
4-Hour Candle Boxes
Each 4H candle is displayed as a colored box showing its range:
Gray = 6PM (evening)
Blue = 10PM (Asia)
Purple = 2AM (early London)
Orange = 6AM (London + NY Open) - THE CURVE SESSION
Teal = 10AM (NY morning) - THE MONEY SESSION
Red = 2PM (NY afternoon) - THE FADE SESSION
HOD/LOD Lines
Black horizontal lines extend from current HOD/LOD with labels showing:
Which candle set the extreme
Current price level
THE CHECKPOINT TABLE EXPLAINED
Table Header:
Shows current checkpoint (e.g., "🎯 10AM CHECKPOINT") or "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" if between checkpoints.
Main Metrics (Side-by-Side Comparison):
The table displays HOD and LOD separately in two columns because they can have different patterns:
METRIC
HODLOD Eliminations
Number of candles eliminated so far for highs
Number of candles eliminated so far for lows
Structure
Sequential or Skip pattern for highs
Sequential or Skip pattern for lows
Prev Candle
Was previous candle's high eliminated or did it survive?
Was previous candle's low eliminated or did it survive?
Pattern
Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early
Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early
Color Coding:
Structure Row:
White = Sequential (smooth trend)
Orange = Skip (choppy/reversal)
Previous Candle Row:
Red = Eliminated (relentless trend continuing)
Blue = Survived (trend paused)
Pattern Row:
Red = Relentless (previous eliminated + sequential = strong trend)
Blue = Paused (previous survived + sequential = trend pause)
Orange = Skip/Chop (skip pattern = reversal likely)
Gray = Early (0-1 eliminations, too early to tell)
Probability Section:
Prob Already In: Percentage chance that HOD/LOD has already been set
Color coding:
Green (>75%) = High confidence extreme is in, FADE
Yellow (45-75%) = Moderate confidence
Red (<45%) = Low confidence extreme is in, CONTINUATION likely
Sample Size: Shows how many historical occurrences match this exact state (n=XXX)
Larger samples = higher confidence
Most common states have n=500-2,000+
Current: Which candle currently holds HOD/LOD
Pattern Guide Section:
Appears when you have 2+ eliminations. Provides interpretation:
📈 Paused: Trend has paused, 2pm more likely to set extreme
📈 Relentless: Breaking higher/lower, continuation expected
📈 Skip/Chop: Choppy pattern, next session likely
Same for lows with 📉 symbol.
PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES
Example 1: High Conviction Fade Setup
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 0 (both HOD/LOD)
Structure: None (no eliminations yet)
Prev Candle: Survived
Table shows:
HOD Prob Already In: 68.9% (n=582)
LOD Prob Already In: 73.6% (n=785)
Interpretation: Range is likely complete. Fade extremes. With 0 eliminations and 70%+ probability, this is a high-conviction mean reversion signal.
Example 2: Strong Continuation Signal
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 3 (both HOD/LOD)
Structure: Sequential
Prev Candle: Eliminated (relentless)
Table shows:
HOD Prob Already In: 29.8% (n=1,758)
LOD Prob Already In: 34.6% (n=1,451)
Pattern: 📈 Relentless / 📉 Relentless
Interpretation: Strong trend day. Only 30-35% chance range is complete. Look for breakouts in direction of trend. 10AM and 2PM likely to extend range.
Example 3: Pattern Structure Edge
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 2 (HOD)
Structure: Skip (orange background)
Prev Candle: Eliminated vs Alternative State:
Eliminations: 2 (HOD)
Structure: Sequential
Prev Candle: Survived
Result: Skip pattern shows 64% chance 10AM participates vs 36% for sequential+survived. Skip pattern = 2X more likely to see 10AM high. This structural edge is unique to this indicator.
Example 4: Different HOD vs LOD Patterns
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
HOD: 2 eliminations, Sequential, Previous Eliminated (Relentless) = 46.7% in
LOD: 2 eliminations, Skip, Previous Eliminated (Choppy) = 48.4% in
Interpretation: Highs show relentless uptrend but lows show choppy behavior. This divergence suggests potential for upside continuation but with volatility. Not a clean trend day.
KEY CHECKPOINT STATISTICS (DERIVED FROM 10-YEAR DATASET)
10PM Checkpoint (After 6PM):
Very early in day
13.5% HOD in, 21.3% LOD in
Most likely outcome: Range extends into 6AM/10AM
2AM Checkpoint (After 10PM):
Still early
With 0 elims: 22-31% in (balanced)
With 1 elim: 8-12% in (strong trend signal)
6AM Checkpoint (After 2AM) - Critical Decision Point:
With 0 elims: 40-47% in (balanced, could go either way)
With 2 elims: 18-22% in (strong trend into 6AM/10AM)
Most likely outcome: 10AM sets extremes (~38-40%)
10AM Checkpoint (After 6AM) - Highest Conviction:
With 0 elims: 69-74% in → FADE (high confidence)
With 3 elims: 30-35% in → BUY/SELL continuation
This is THE money checkpoint for high-probability setups
2PM Checkpoint (After 10AM) - Maximum Fade Conviction:
With 0-3 elims: 67-95% in → FADE strongly
With 4 elims: 49-61% in (monster trend, weaker fade)
2PM is primarily a mean reversion session
UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING DATA
All probabilities are derived from analysis of:
Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
Timeframe: 1-minute bars
Period: January 2013 - December 2025
Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days
Methodology: Real-time checkpoint analysis with zero forward-looking bias
Why NQ-Specific?
Each futures contract has unique:
Session characteristics (6AM in NQ shows 60-64% curve behavior, other sessions differ)
Timing patterns (NQ's 10AM session has 67-74% immediate takeouts)
Volatility profiles (NQ 2PM shows 56% bullish bias vs ES shows different bias)
Using this indicator on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce inaccurate results because the probability tables are NQ-specific.
ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
What Makes This Indicator Unique:
Zero Forward-Looking Bias: State locks at checkpoint moments. Traditional indicators recalculate continuously, introducing bias. This indicator freezes probabilities at the exact moment a 4H candle closes.
Three-Factor State System: Combines elimination count, structure pattern, and previous candle status. Most indicators only track one dimension. This multi-factor approach provides 2X+ probability differentials.
Separate HOD/LOD Tracking: Highs and lows can have different patterns simultaneously (relentless high with choppy low). This indicator tracks them separately for precision.
Pattern Structure Analysis: Distinguishes between sequential and skip patterns, a concept not found in standard indicators. Skip patterns show mean reversion while sequential shows continuation.
10+ Year Statistical Foundation: Every probability is backed by hundreds to thousands of historical occurrences (sample sizes shown in table). Not based on theories or assumptions.
Checkpoint-Specific Probabilities: Different checkpoints have different probability profiles. 10AM checkpoint with 0 eliminations = 70%+ fade. 6AM checkpoint with same state = 40%+ fade. Context matters.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
Step 1: Wait for Checkpoint
The table will show "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" until a 4H candle closes. Probabilities are only valid at checkpoint moments.
Step 2: Read the State
Check the three factors:
How many eliminations?
Sequential or skip?
Previous candle eliminated or survived?
Step 3: Check Probability
Look at "Prob Already In" percentage:
>75% (Green) = High confidence extreme is set, fade
45-75% (Yellow) = Moderate confidence, use other confirmation
<45% (Red) = Low confidence extreme is set, continuation likely
Step 4: Check Sample Size
Larger sample (n=1,000+) = higher confidence
Smaller sample (n=50-200) = use caution, edge is real but less robust
Step 5: Consider Pattern
Read the pattern guide:
Relentless = trend continuing
Paused = trend stalled, mean reversion
Skip/Chop = reversal/range likely
Step 6: Compare HOD vs LOD
If both show similar patterns = cleaner signal
If divergent patterns = complex day, be cautious
BEST PRACTICES
Focus on 10AM and 2PM checkpoints - These have the highest conviction signals
Combine with price action - Don't fade blindly at 90% probability if price is breaking out strongly
Larger samples = better edges - Prioritize setups with n=500+
Watch for pattern divergence - When HOD and LOD show different patterns, expect complexity
Remember session characteristics:
6AM = THE CURVE SESSION (60-64% mean reversion when Q2 breaks Q1)
10AM = THE MONEY SESSION (67-74% immediate takeouts, highest conviction)
2PM = THE FADE SESSION (67-95% extremes already in)
SETTINGS
Show 4H Candle Boxes - Display colored boxes for each 4H candle
Show HOD/LOD Lines - Display horizontal lines at current extremes
Show Checkpoint Analysis - Display probability table
Table Position - Choose where to place the checkpoint table
Table Size - Tiny/Small/Normal
Colors - Customize box colors for each session
LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS
NQ FUTURES ONLY - Do not use on other instruments
Not a standalone system - Use as confluence with your strategy
Historical data - Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
Sample size variance - Some states have smaller samples, use judgment
Requires understanding - Read this guide fully before trading with this tool
FINAL NOTES
This indicator represents 10+ years of NQ futures data distilled into actionable, real-time probabilities. The checkpoint methodology ensures zero forward-looking bias, while the three-factor state system provides granular edge that traditional indicators miss.
Remember: This tool provides probabilities, not certainties. Trade with proper risk management, and use this as one input in your decision-making process.
Dailyhighlow
Daily Levels [cryptalent]Daily High / Low / Mid / Open Levels is a session-based reference indicator designed to visualize key daily price levels directly on the chart.
This indicator automatically plots the Daily High, Daily Low, Daily Midpoint (High + Low / 2), and Daily Open as horizontal lines for each trading day. These levels help traders quickly identify important structural prices where liquidity, reactions, or acceptance often occur.
Key Features
Automatic Daily Levels
Plots Daily High (H), Low (L), Mid (M), and Open (O) using higher-timeframe daily data.
Levels update in real time as the current day develops.
Multi-Day History
Displays daily levels for a configurable number of past days.
Older levels are automatically removed to keep the chart clean.
Line Extension
Current day levels can be extended forward by a user-defined number of bars.
Useful for projecting intraday reaction zones and liquidity targets.
Visual Customization
Independent line width and color settings for each level.
Mid level is shown as a dashed line for quick visual distinction.
Labels & Price Tags
Optional letter labels (H / L / M / O) displayed near the extended levels.
Optional price labels showing the exact level values on the right side of the chart.
Labels update dynamically and only display for the active trading day.
Performance-Oriented Design
Efficient line and label management using arrays.
Automatically cleans up unused objects to stay within TradingView limits.
Use Cases
Identifying intraday support and resistance
Tracking daily range behavior
Monitoring mean reversion vs. range expansion
Aligning intraday execution with higher-timeframe structure
This indicator is particularly useful for traders who rely on market structure, session behavior, and objective price references rather than subjective trend lines.
Previous Period High/Low LevelsThis indicator plots the previous day, week, and month high and low levels to highlight key liquidity levels.
Perfect for traders using market structure, liquidity, or SMC concepts.
Features:
Auto-plots PDH/PDL, PWH/PWL, and PMH/PML
Adjustable line styles, widths, and label sizes
Toggle price display on or off
Accurate UTC offset handling
Timeframe LiquidityTimeframe Liquidity – Multi-Timeframe Highs & Lows by
Timeframe Liquidity automatically plots previous day, week, month, and year highs and lows, key liquidity zones used by smart money and price-action traders. These levels extend into the future and can automatically stop once price wicks through, showing clear liquidity sweeps and tested zones.
Perfect for traders using ICT / SMC concepts, liquidity theory, or market structure analysis. Instantly see where liquidity rests, where it’s been taken, and how price reacts at major support and resistance.
Features:
Auto-plots PDH/PDL, PWH/PWL, PMH/PML, PYH/PYL
Custom line styles, colors, and label sizes
Option to stop line on wick (liquidity sweep)
Smart timeframe visibility (hides same-TF levels)
Accurate UTC offset handling
Identify liquidity pools fast, trade cleaner charts, and track where smart money hunts liquidity.
Built for precision, clarity, and confluence.
Previous Day and Current Day High/LowKey Features:
Previous Day High and Low Lines:
Displays the high (PDH) and low (PDL) levels of the previous trading day.
Allows customization of line colors, styles (solid, dashed, or dotted), and widths.
Extends these lines by a specified number of candles into the current day for better visualization.
Current Day High and Low Lines:
Displays the high (CDH) and low (CDL) levels during the current day's regular trading hours.
Customizable line attributes, including color, style, width, and extension length.
Customizable Input Options:
User-configurable settings for both the previous and current day high/low lines, grouped under respective sections for clarity.
Regular trading hours can be defined manually (default is 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM).
Ability to toggle the visibility of the lines for both the previous and current days.
Automatic Reset at the Start of a New Day:
Captures the high and low values of the completed day and resets for the new day.
Deletes old lines and labels to ensure clarity and avoid overlap.
Dynamic Updates:
Updates the current day's high and low lines and labels as new data comes in.
Adjusts previous day lines dynamically based on the user-defined number of candles to extend.
Session-Based Filtering:
Ensures the calculations and updates are restricted to the defined regular trading hours.
Code Logic:
Input Groups: The script uses grouped inputs to allow users to configure settings for previous and current day levels separately.
Line and Label Management: It creates and deletes lines and labels dynamically to prevent clutter and keep the chart organized.
Session Check: Uses the session input to determine if a bar falls within regular trading hours.
High/Low Calculation: Tracks the high and low for both the previous and current days during regular trading hours.
New Day Detection: Identifies the start of a new trading day to update previous day values and reset current day variables.
Applications:
Intraday Trading: Helps traders identify critical support and resistance levels from the previous and current days.
Trend Analysis: Provides visual cues for price movement trends across consecutive days.
Custom Visualization: With extensive customization options, traders can adapt the indicator to suit their trading style and chart aesthetics.
This script is highly configurable, making it versatile for a wide range of trading strategies and styles.
Multi-Timeframe High Low (@JP7FX)Multi-Timeframe High Low Levels (@JP7FX)
This Price Action indicator displays high and low levels from a selected timeframe on your current chart.
These levels COULD represent areas of potential liquidity, providing key price points where traders can target entries, reversals, or continuation trades.
Key Features:
Display high and low levels from a selected timeframe.
Customize line width, colors for high and low levels, and label text color.
Enable or disable the display of high levels, low levels, and labels.
Receive alerts when the price takes out high or low levels.
How to use:
It is important to note that using this indicator on it's own is not advisable. Instead, it should be combined with other tools and analysis for a more comprehensive trading strategy.
Possibly look to use my MTF Supply and Demand Indicator to look for zones to trade from at these levels?
If the price breaks above a high level, you might consider entering a long position, with the expectation that the price will continue to rise. Conversely, if the price breaks below a low level, you may think about entering a short position, anticipating further downward movement.
On the other hand, you can also use high or low levels to look for reversal trades, as these areas can represent attractive liquidity zones.
By identifying these key price points, you could take advantage of potential market reversals and capitalise on new trading opportunities.
Always remember to use this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools for the best results.
Additionally, you can enable alerts to notify you when the price takes out high or low levels, helping you stay informed about significant price movements.
This indicator could be a valuable tool for traders looking to identify key price points for potential trading opportunities.
As always with the markets, Trade Safe :)
Current price & Daily openFor those who likes clean chart:
I made a simple script that shows Current price based on the last candle color.
Also can show Daily open line based on the daily candle color.
Daily open line is same as strong support and resistance levels.
Mostly price shows strong responces on daily open line.
1: Daily open line color is blue if current price is above the daily open line.
And daily open line is red if current price is below the daily open line.
This means blue daily open line represents bullish daily candle and red daily open line represents bearish daily candle.
Simply you can expect Buy setup on the daily open line if it is blue and vice versa. That means you are following the daily trend, nothing else.
Always double confirm with your own trading style. It's not guaranteed.
You can use this script when you want to see daily price action or to find daily high lows.
This script helps to identify the following day high and lows too on the lower timeframe.
2: When you add drawing tools on your chart price labels are overlapping or if you choose not overlap then price moves up or down so you are not able to see current price easily.
This script helps to show current price on the last candle. You can easily see the current price.
Current price color is blue when last candle is bullish and it's red when last candle is bearish .
It always calculates last candle. So it could be weekly or 1 minute candle, whatever timeframe you working on.
Thank you.
Session High Low
This indicator shows Session High Low line and prices.
1: Session range is adjustable based on your timeframe. Nomore confusing timezone settings.
You can choose your timezone then set your Session start and end time.
Script will show you the following session high and low lines which is extendable until next session.
2: All historical lines and price levels are can be partially or fully hidden.
And line colors are adjustable so you can use suitable color on your chart.
Based on session you choose this script can be used as a session break strategy AKA (Asian session break, London session break strategy).
You can create your own trading Session and high lows.
Personally I monitor how price reacts on London session high lows during the NewYork trading session.
In this chart Session starts at 8am (London open) and closes at 12:30 (NewYork open). Script is showing high lows only in this session range.
Always double confirm with your trading style. It's not a Financial advice.
Inputs:
1: Hide history - Hides all historical lines and prices that means you can see only todays session.
2: Show price - Shows price level of session high lows. You can hide price level if you want to see only lines.
3: Session time - You can set your time range of session.
4: Start time - Session start time. You can see vertical line on your chart or you can hide line.
5: End time - Session end time. You can see vertical line on your chart or you can hide line.
6: Line extend time - End of the high low lines. You can draw line until the end of the session or you can draw short line.
7: All line and price colors are optional.
Thank you.
Bollinger Band with Moving Average & Pin BarsThis indicator was specifically built to be used for trading the Scalpius Trading System promoted by @scottphillipstrading. Additionally I've added Daily and Weekly Highs, Lows and Central Pivot lines
The central indicators used in the Scalpius trading system which are included here are: The Bollinger Band, chart plotting of Pin Bars (Hammers & Shooting Stars) and an Exponential Moving Average.
In the settings the user has the option select EMA, SMA or WMA along with desired length, the default settings are 8EMA as per the Scalpius system rules. Also the Bollinger Band settings can be amended by the user and the Pin Bar chart plots and daily + weekly high and low plots can be removed by the user.
Daily DeviationShows you the normal deviation from the OPEN based upon historical data.
Levels measured:
Normal range (1 standard deviation) of the CLOSE (vs the OPEN).
Normal daily HIGH +1, +2, +3, and +4 standard deviations.
Normal daily LOW -1, -2, -3, and -4 standard deviations.
Configuration:
Always shows you the normal CLOSE vs OPEN range for the current session.
Can display previous day's ranges (extra days) based upon the calendar (not trading days).
Normally displays which levels have been exceeded (to reduce noise and keep auto-scale to a minimum), but can show all the ranges for the current session.
The default number of days to measure (50) will affect the accuracy but outliers are cleaned to avoid dramatic variance.
Note:
These are only statistical representations of what has occurred in the past. You can interpret the current price as oversold or overbought for the day (and only that day) relative to the OPEN. Gaps high or low are not considered in the equation.
Furious PivotsSimple script marking out quarter points plus weekly and daily highs and lows! pretty damn useful
Multi Range VWAP PivotsMulti Range VWAP Pivots turned out to be one of my most accurate pivot indicators to date!
Multi Range VWAP Pivots works by recognizing the high and low of the timeframe selected (D, W, M, 6M, and 12M) and plotting range high to VWAP averages and range low to VWAP averages.
After further examination of each completed range, I came to the conclusion that due to the nature of averages, high and low respectively would need to be completed within the current range, for the averages to actually display pivots correctly. This means that if all averages appear to be "pivoting" correctly after or during a break lower of higher, then we can only assume the most recent break higher or lower could be exhaustion and price will be reverted to the mean (VWAP). OR, this could be the most accurate hindsight indicator on the planet.
*DISCLAIMER*: This indicator repaints. DO NOT backtest or set alerts with this indicator.
Previous Day, Week, Month High/Low Line IndicatorMade a line indicator for previous Daily Weekly & Monthly High / Low. You can use all 3 (D,W,M) or just one by editing the settings.
Previous Days High & LowRenders the high and low values from previous days.
Useful alert conditions are provided: "Less than low" and "Greater than high".
Configuration:
The number of days is configurable with a default of 1.
The source of the high and low values.
Use the close value instead of high and low values. Default is false.
The example above uses 2 days to demonstrate an exit strategy.
